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Thanks everyone for wishing me a happy birthday, I wish I had a piece to post today, but I'm still polishing the last details for the 2094 map for the Second Renaissance TL. I've got at least two more maps to go with a potential intermediate map, and the last two should be posted in fairly rapid succession of eachother.
Election Update
Joe Liberman is dead, and his co-founder at No Labels has announced that they will not field a candidate, and that he personally will be voting for Joe Biden. Robert Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot in all of 3 states (Hawaii, New Hampshire, and Utah) and has only made an effort to gain ballot access in six more states. Cornell West's campaign is essentially dead, with him appearing on the ballot in only three states (South Carolina, Oregon, and Alaska) and having made hardly any effort to expand his own ballot access. Jill Stein is attempting another run for the Green Party nomination, but her only activity has almost completely dried up much like West's. Trump has secured his party's nomination with barely a fight from Haley or DeSantis, despite the Press all but inventing their viability as candidates. And Joe Biden's strongest source of opposition is from a tiny minority of anti-war democrats voting "None of the Above" in the primary, usually with public statements that they have
An Update on Election 2024
A lot of the unknowns around the 2024 Presidential Election are starting to solidify. The Republican Primary is already down to just two candidates, former President Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Biden is functionally running unopposed with crystal lady Marianne Williamson and Delusional Nobody Congressman Dean Phillips in the race with him. Beyond the primaries, the two independents of any note (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West) are struggling to raise money, maintain online support with the Russian bot networks going down, or get on the ballot in more than three states. In fact West and Kennedy have only managed to push through the paperwork for filing in all of a dozen states. The long touted biggest threat to the Biden Camp, the Republican financed, aging gomer led No Labels can't find a nominee, has failed to raise even a third of their targeted war chest, and is facing lawsuits from their biggest donors. I don't want to count my chickens before they
Forecast 2024
2024 will be a year of people's nerves being constantly frayed by the US Presidential Election and ever growing global instability. The Economy Most economists have signaled that 2023 is closing out with an economic "soft landing," avoiding a recession in favor of slow, but stable growth. As I've said before: traditional economic rules no longer apply, so while 2023 avoided an actual recession, 2024 will see the gap between reported economic data and people's lived experiences grow further apart. The Labor Shortage and Interest Rates The Labor Shortage will only get worse this year. Despite the end of the lockdowns and the normalization of COVID-19, 2023 saw 2.4 million excess retirees, nearly identical to the numbers in 2021. This has translated to a shortage of 3.5 million workers. Labor Force Participation has fallen to around 62.8%, which would have been an all time low if not for the lockdown. In fact this is a 3 year high for labor force participation. Rather than repeat
2023 Forecast Scorecard
Check out my original 2023 forecast here. Now let's begin: The Economy By all accounts 2023 has ended without a recession and an apparent "soft landing" if you judge economic health by unemployment and GDP growth. BUT, as I said before, the traditional economic rules no longer apply. The Labor Shortage is here, and what we're seeing is just the beginnings of employers competing for increasingly scarce labor. This has in turn led to a Big Capital Crunch as national banks raise interest rates, because that's all they know how to do. The only bit of good news is that the increase in wages has largely ended the NPL crisis, at least in the advanced industrialized world where mortgage delinquency rates are at historic lows. However, the Big Capital Crunch has exposed some weaknesses in a tech sector that since the Dot Com Crash has relied on extremely low interest rates to fuel a lot of "Free-to-Uses" business models, and server-heavy digital services. In English this means that a lot of
© 2014 - 2024 YNot1989
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Happy birthday man!