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So what if after WWI instead of a nut like Hitler taking power in Germany, a kind of Otto Von Bismark II came to power, a nationalistic but extremely intelligent practitioner of Realpolitik. The Nazis come to power, but they dial back the anti-semetism in favor of blaming the political elites and the wealthy, and promising to make Germany strong in the face of depression. So more of a Bismark meets FDR, Franz Van Roosevelt, a Franz Van Bismark.
So Franz takes power much like OTL Hitler, just with fewer murdering innocent people and no genocide, while seizing the assets of wealthy German aristocrats and using it to build up the German economy and create a war machine to take back the Rhineland. Only Franz invests heavily into a nuclear program, and instead of spending money on a bunch of other wonder weapons projects invests into the creation of efficient mass producing of cheaper weapons, because that's how you win wars.
WWII starts very much like it did in OTL, and goes about the same as in OTL (with no Holocaust) until about 1941. In this timeline Germany does not invade Russia at all, and concentrates on Africa and Western Europe. The Battle of Britain and the Blitz are much worse than in OTL, as Germany has finally developed reliable long range bombers, and has not split its forces between three fronts. Additionally, the British colonies are busy facing a combination of German and Japanese invasions as in OTL, but also anti-British rebel groups in India, Egypt, and South Africa.
After the Japanese attack the US, Germany will be compelled to declare war against the Americans, but will be more than prepared to resist the Americans at sea and deny them from setting up a base of operations in the UK. The War in Europe is largely over, the British people have lost their will to fight and after a disastrous attempt to invade Africa the Americans are stopped when Germany uses the world's first atomic bomb to halt the invasion, developed with the money that would have been used on experimental weapons and the Holocaust
Germany calls for a peace conference in 1944 to negotiate an Armestice. The Treaty of Dublin formalizes Germany's gains in Europe, directly annexing the Low countries, a portion of Eastern France the territory lost in WWI and most of the colonies of the annexed nations. Britain cedes Gibraltar to the Germans, while granting independence their Asian colonies, India, Egypt and South Africa. The US had made sufficient gains in Asia that Japan pulls back in the Pacific just enough to secure their oil needs, the Japanese won't get their Co-Prosperity sphere, but they will get Manchuria and Korea, and will keep Taiwan. The winners win enough, and the losers lose enough.
After the war Germany builds a kind of EU/NATO that they directly control. Germany works to secure an alliance with the US against the Soviets as Stalin becomes more paranoid. In 1947, Germany launches its first Satellite. By 1950 Germany has sent the first human into Space closely followed by the US with Chuck Yeager's first suborbital flight. Germany has developed ICBMs well before any other country, however the US Air Force stationed in Britain remains a significant threat. The United Nations has very little power outside of the British-American bloc, and the Soviets have become increasingly confrontational against the Japanese and Germans. The US finally develops an atomic bomb of their own in 1949, and is playing the Soviets and Germans off of each-other in Europe and the Japanese and the Chinese off of Each-other in Asia. Having largely remained out of WWII, the Soviets have succeeded in Industrializing their country and built the largest land Army in Europe, while Mao is still fighting a civil war against a Japanese puppet regime in Beijing, partly with US help.
After Stalin dies, Georgy Malenkov comes to power and formalizes the line of succession that Stalin was so hesitant to put into place, even after the Palace of the Soviets was completed. The Cold War between the Axis and Comintern powers persists with the Former Western Allies in the UN occasionally supporting one side over the other, and is believed to have provided the Soviets with nuclear weapons technology leading to their own bomb in 1953. The UN's only goal is to keep Eurasia divided against itself rather than allow either Germany or the Soviets to consolidate power over the continent, the world remains in a state of unsteady peace.
Shall I keep going?
So Franz takes power much like OTL Hitler, just with fewer murdering innocent people and no genocide, while seizing the assets of wealthy German aristocrats and using it to build up the German economy and create a war machine to take back the Rhineland. Only Franz invests heavily into a nuclear program, and instead of spending money on a bunch of other wonder weapons projects invests into the creation of efficient mass producing of cheaper weapons, because that's how you win wars.
WWII starts very much like it did in OTL, and goes about the same as in OTL (with no Holocaust) until about 1941. In this timeline Germany does not invade Russia at all, and concentrates on Africa and Western Europe. The Battle of Britain and the Blitz are much worse than in OTL, as Germany has finally developed reliable long range bombers, and has not split its forces between three fronts. Additionally, the British colonies are busy facing a combination of German and Japanese invasions as in OTL, but also anti-British rebel groups in India, Egypt, and South Africa.
After the Japanese attack the US, Germany will be compelled to declare war against the Americans, but will be more than prepared to resist the Americans at sea and deny them from setting up a base of operations in the UK. The War in Europe is largely over, the British people have lost their will to fight and after a disastrous attempt to invade Africa the Americans are stopped when Germany uses the world's first atomic bomb to halt the invasion, developed with the money that would have been used on experimental weapons and the Holocaust
Germany calls for a peace conference in 1944 to negotiate an Armestice. The Treaty of Dublin formalizes Germany's gains in Europe, directly annexing the Low countries, a portion of Eastern France the territory lost in WWI and most of the colonies of the annexed nations. Britain cedes Gibraltar to the Germans, while granting independence their Asian colonies, India, Egypt and South Africa. The US had made sufficient gains in Asia that Japan pulls back in the Pacific just enough to secure their oil needs, the Japanese won't get their Co-Prosperity sphere, but they will get Manchuria and Korea, and will keep Taiwan. The winners win enough, and the losers lose enough.
After the war Germany builds a kind of EU/NATO that they directly control. Germany works to secure an alliance with the US against the Soviets as Stalin becomes more paranoid. In 1947, Germany launches its first Satellite. By 1950 Germany has sent the first human into Space closely followed by the US with Chuck Yeager's first suborbital flight. Germany has developed ICBMs well before any other country, however the US Air Force stationed in Britain remains a significant threat. The United Nations has very little power outside of the British-American bloc, and the Soviets have become increasingly confrontational against the Japanese and Germans. The US finally develops an atomic bomb of their own in 1949, and is playing the Soviets and Germans off of each-other in Europe and the Japanese and the Chinese off of Each-other in Asia. Having largely remained out of WWII, the Soviets have succeeded in Industrializing their country and built the largest land Army in Europe, while Mao is still fighting a civil war against a Japanese puppet regime in Beijing, partly with US help.
After Stalin dies, Georgy Malenkov comes to power and formalizes the line of succession that Stalin was so hesitant to put into place, even after the Palace of the Soviets was completed. The Cold War between the Axis and Comintern powers persists with the Former Western Allies in the UN occasionally supporting one side over the other, and is believed to have provided the Soviets with nuclear weapons technology leading to their own bomb in 1953. The UN's only goal is to keep Eurasia divided against itself rather than allow either Germany or the Soviets to consolidate power over the continent, the world remains in a state of unsteady peace.
Shall I keep going?
Election Update
Joe Liberman is dead, and his co-founder at No Labels has announced that they will not field a candidate, and that he personally will be voting for Joe Biden. Robert Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot in all of 3 states (Hawaii, New Hampshire, and Utah) and has only made an effort to gain ballot access in six more states. Cornell West's campaign is essentially dead, with him appearing on the ballot in only three states (South Carolina, Oregon, and Alaska) and having made hardly any effort to expand his own ballot access. Jill Stein is attempting another run for the Green Party nomination, but her only activity has almost completely dried up much like West's. Trump has secured his party's nomination with barely a fight from Haley or DeSantis, despite the Press all but inventing their viability as candidates. And Joe Biden's strongest source of opposition is from a tiny minority of anti-war democrats voting "None of the Above" in the primary, usually with public statements that they have
An Update on Election 2024
A lot of the unknowns around the 2024 Presidential Election are starting to solidify. The Republican Primary is already down to just two candidates, former President Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Biden is functionally running unopposed with crystal lady Marianne Williamson and Delusional Nobody Congressman Dean Phillips in the race with him. Beyond the primaries, the two independents of any note (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West) are struggling to raise money, maintain online support with the Russian bot networks going down, or get on the ballot in more than three states. In fact West and Kennedy have only managed to push through the paperwork for filing in all of a dozen states. The long touted biggest threat to the Biden Camp, the Republican financed, aging gomer led No Labels can't find a nominee, has failed to raise even a third of their targeted war chest, and is facing lawsuits from their biggest donors. I don't want to count my chickens before they
Forecast 2024
2024 will be a year of people's nerves being constantly frayed by the US Presidential Election and ever growing global instability. The Economy Most economists have signaled that 2023 is closing out with an economic "soft landing," avoiding a recession in favor of slow, but stable growth. As I've said before: traditional economic rules no longer apply, so while 2023 avoided an actual recession, 2024 will see the gap between reported economic data and people's lived experiences grow further apart. The Labor Shortage and Interest Rates The Labor Shortage will only get worse this year. Despite the end of the lockdowns and the normalization of COVID-19, 2023 saw 2.4 million excess retirees, nearly identical to the numbers in 2021. This has translated to a shortage of 3.5 million workers. Labor Force Participation has fallen to around 62.8%, which would have been an all time low if not for the lockdown. In fact this is a 3 year high for labor force participation. Rather than repeat
2023 Forecast Scorecard
Check out my original 2023 forecast here. Now let's begin: The Economy By all accounts 2023 has ended without a recession and an apparent "soft landing" if you judge economic health by unemployment and GDP growth. BUT, as I said before, the traditional economic rules no longer apply. The Labor Shortage is here, and what we're seeing is just the beginnings of employers competing for increasingly scarce labor. This has in turn led to a Big Capital Crunch as national banks raise interest rates, because that's all they know how to do. The only bit of good news is that the increase in wages has largely ended the NPL crisis, at least in the advanced industrialized world where mortgage delinquency rates are at historic lows. However, the Big Capital Crunch has exposed some weaknesses in a tech sector that since the Dot Com Crash has relied on extremely low interest rates to fuel a lot of "Free-to-Uses" business models, and server-heavy digital services. In English this means that a lot of
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The simple problem with this sort of thing is outlined here: www.combinedfleet.com/economic…
Even if the Germans get the bomb first Japan loses hard they don't win there will be NO peace treaty with Japan if Pearl still happens. If the President tries he will get crushed in the next election and get replaced with someone who will. The Germans can't contest the Americans at sea. Subs will get sunk by redeployment of long-range bombers, better ASW methods, and escort carriers closing the gap. You are better off going to AH.com and posting your idea there you will receive plenty of good actual criticism and critique.
Even if the Germans get the bomb first Japan loses hard they don't win there will be NO peace treaty with Japan if Pearl still happens. If the President tries he will get crushed in the next election and get replaced with someone who will. The Germans can't contest the Americans at sea. Subs will get sunk by redeployment of long-range bombers, better ASW methods, and escort carriers closing the gap. You are better off going to AH.com and posting your idea there you will receive plenty of good actual criticism and critique.