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World War III by YNot1989 World War III by YNot1989
Houghton Mifflin Social Studies
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Chapter 14: The Third World War
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Dark Red: Turkey and Japan
Majenta: Coalition Nations
Pink: Neutral Prior to 2052
Dark Blue: The Alliance
Light Blue: Officially Neutral, Alliance Supporters
Grey Green: Neutral

The Third World War began in earnest on November 23rd, 2050 with the Japanese coordinated assault on America's Battle Star Network and domestic air bases. The attack crippled the Alliance's space systems and allowed for Turkey to begin a wider assault on the Polish Bloc. and India.

Using what little air power remained, and bolstering their diminished space forces with secretly stockpiled satellite systems he US launched a series of strikes on Japanese air and naval bases on the home islands. For the next year Southern Europe would be invaded by the Turks who would eventually spread as far as southern Russia and Poland itself.

Desperate for aid, Poland begs the US to launch an attack directly on Turkey, but the US cannot abide with its diminished forces. Working with the British, the US eventually is able to launch a devastating strike on Turkey, though taking heavy losses on their own side.

By 2052 Germany is approached by the Turks, promising them control over Eastern Europe while they promise to not spread farther than the Balkans. German enters the war with France and launches a western front against Poland. Attacked from all sides, the US is forced to send direct ground forces to the Poles via St. Petersburg meeting the Germans and the Turks to stop their advancement toward Warsaw. Scorched Earth Tactics by the Poles buy the Americans and British forces time to set up forward operations.

By 2053 the US has launched a new Battle Star network (for now consisting of only a single next gen Battle Star), and a next-gen fleet of hypersonic UCAVs that level Coalition military forces. The Germans and French are pushed out of Poland, while the Turks are pushed back over the Carpathians and into the Balkans, while China and Korea expel the Japanese from mainland Asia. A hasty treaty is pushed through in Geneva ending the conflict, but granting Japan and Turkey their sovereignty, and Turkey a sphere of influence in the Islamic World. Poland is furious at the American refusal not to destroy the Turks once and for all, but they are left with an empire close of their 17th century holdings. Britain now dominates a thoroughly stagnated Atlantic Europe. The most controversial section of the treaty is the article providing that only America will have access to militarize space, while other countries will only be able to have commercial activity.

Death Toll: 50,000

**This scenario was conceived by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade"
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014
Do you actually believe this is what the future is going to be like, or is there anything that's happened since the book was written that contradicts the predictions it contains?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I've maintained since the beginning that Friedman is drastically underestimating the impact of mankind's settlement of space, and that his dismissive attitude towards climate change is fundamentally flawed (though his reasons are certainly better than most conservatives). But yes, I think a war between the US and a Japanese-Turkish alliance will happen much in the way he described it. We're already seeing the beginnings of this trend with Japan's increasingly proactive activities against China and North Korea, and Turkey now becoming a state with a strong Presidency and pressure from the US to be the pillar of the Arab world, and Poland is already receiving military aid from the US that is only highlighting the disparity between the US and Atlantic Europe in the face of a resurgent Russia.
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014
What impact might that have on American culture? I mean, Japanese culture has integrated itself into American culture to a large extent now. If there was a war with Japan, would every American who drives a Toyota, or owns a Playstation, or reads Japanese manga, become the equivalent of a post-9/11 Muslim? I know that in Friedman's scenario the so-called "World War" kills only 50,000 people, but I should hope that by that point we as a nation have outgrown our more aggressive tendencies?

Also, I must say that I am skeptical about Friedman's scenario "Battlestars". Maybe it's because I'm a space enthusiast, but it has been proven in the past that manned orbital battle stations are not practical as a means of conducting warfare. The Soviets tried in the 1970s, and it didn't really get anywhere. The US, on the other hand, planned to build a sort of mini-space shuttle called the Dyna-Soar, that was supposed to serve as an orbiting spy platform and also sabotage enemy satellites. Back then, satellite photography in real-time was impossible (the film had to literally be dropped down to Earth to be developed), so the idea of military space stations was enticing. But it's not like that anymore. 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I suspect American culture would reframe certain aspects about its history with Japan and there would be a degree of "symbolic purging," but that's nothing new, every society has done something like that at one point or another. Fortunately, Japan has done a lot of REALLY shitty things in the past and all an Anti-Japanese movement in the US has to do is just say, "Hey remember the Bataan Death March, the Rape of Nanking, Chinese Comfort Women, and the institutionalized racism and sexism in Japanese society? Yeah? Good, fuck those people amiright?" See, easy. And please don't be one of these poor fools who think humans will ever outgrow their humanity. There are few things more human that bashing someone's head in with a rock, but we've just advanced far enough now to control where that aggression goes, we'll never be able to get rid of that violent nature.

The orbital command and control network Friedman describes is nothing like the Soviet Salyut program. Salyut was just the Russian's way to attempt global surveilance without digital imaging, like we did with the KH-9s with unmanned analog tape recovery. Friedman's stations are command and control stations that have taken over for the current US Command Structure. Think about that, the US military is no longer directed from Earth, but rather from space based platforms, the Pentagon is little more than a cubical farm to handle what bureaucracy wasn't converted to computers by the time the Battlestars were launched. And if you think the military isn't moving toward that goal, just look at XS-1, X-37, and the Third Offset Strategy. X-37 might be used as a recoverable spy satellite, it might be a space drone spying on other stations, none of that speculation matters, because its still proving new technologies for military reusable space transport, and that is the first step to moving C2 to space.

In case you haven't figured it out from this rant or my other pieces, I'm not a space enthusiast... I'm an Aerospace Engineer, this is my industry and I make a point of knowing how it works, and the history behind the projects that influence today's programs. That's why I feature space so heavily in my timelines. Thanks for the questions.
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014
I suppose you're right. We were jackasses in the past, we're jackasses now, and we'll be jackasses in the future. But. . . will things like driving a Toyota or owning a Playstation (assuming those companies exist) be cultural no-nos in Friedman's WW3 scenario?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The US government will place sanctions against Japan and probably fund some half-hearted, fair weather patriot, "BUY AMERICAN" campaign that will make it difficult to buy Japanese made products and you'll probably take shit for driving a Toyota or whatever, but the only people who will take it seriously will be future-rednecks which I suspect will be some new breed of hipster that no longer understands irony. 
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Jun 28, 2015
Hmmm . . . So, sanctions against Japan and a "buy American" campaign, you say?
I don't suppose it would look anything like this:
southpark.cc.com/clips/151509/…
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014
Also, you seem to be ignoring a big problem with space warfare: Kessler Syndrome. 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
We're already working on debris cleaners.
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(1 Reply)
:iconfanartgalaxy:
FanartGalaxy Featured By Owner Jun 28, 2014
Kinda unrealistic, but very cool. I especial enjoy the gloss, Props!
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:iconnealman11:
NealMan11 Featured By Owner Jun 7, 2014
Germany and France since they are good allies of the US and Germany really doesn't want to be that guy who betrayed others again so France and Germany in my opinion would not join Turkey against Poland even though Germany does hate Poland beyond belief, do you agree?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jun 7, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No. Betrayal has nothing to do with it, the US-UK and Western NATO aren't really allies anymore anyway, at least in terms of shared foreign policy. The US does all the heavy lifting in NATO and its tacitly accepted that the French and Germans will, at best, contribute ceremonial support. The situation with Russia makes that abundantly clear. The US is the only western power (so far) contributing to shoring up military support to Eastern Europe, while Germany won't even suggest pulling out of their business partnerships in Russia. NATO is functionally dead.
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:iconnealman11:
NealMan11 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2014
Thank you for the insight, and sorry if I wasted your time.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
You didn't, I enjoy questions and critiques. Without them I wouldn't be able to improve upon the timeline.
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:icondavethesoldier:
davethesoldier Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014
pfffff. still neutral :(
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:iconbimbazava:
Bimbazava Featured By Owner Jan 4, 2013
Big enemy is secret Zionism government,illuminati,freemasons,,,,son of devil on earth,,,
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner May 15, 2015
Ohh shut up
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:iconkazi2000:
kazi2000 Featured By Owner Nov 25, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
nice :)
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
The question my "friend" is not when it will start.... the question is why it didn't strat.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well for one thing Turkey has only recently started to reemerge as a major power, and Japan has been in economic decline for the last twenty years and has yet to reemerge (though it is expected to over the next ten years).
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
My friend, there won't be a war. And turkey a super power.... not gonna happen.
That is coming from the same guy who said China was never gonna be a power and Japan was the gravity center of Assia... China and India are my horses.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 12, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
They're already the most influential power in the region, and as Iran's power continues to grow Turkey will respond to counter their ambition. China is already showing signs of internal crumbling, and India will probably peak within the next decade. Japan has staying power.
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2012
You know that kind of thinking is the one that power crumbling have.
I wouldn't understimate the chineses... They can find a way to success.
I doubt this will be the "american century".
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 14, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I don't underestimate the Chinese, but just look at their history. They've been civilized for 5000 years, and they always do this: rapid growth, followed by internal instability, followed by the central government closing the country in, followed by stability with poverty, rinse and repeat. They'll be lucky if they can pull a Japan and break that cycle, but it will cost them rapid growth anyway.
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 14, 2012
You're a yank, you still believe you're right. Don't understimate man.
Don't follow Stratfor mantra....
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 14, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I don't follow Strafor mantra completely, personally I think they're horribly underestimating the potential affects of climate change and technological development (I lean more on the Kurzweilian side); to say nothing of how much of a factor space will play. The problem is that at his core, Friedman is right about one thing: The United States has the advantage in every area I have just mentioned, with the exception to climate change (we're all screwed there). And I don't underestimate mankind; I simply except that humans are pathetically predictable creatures as a group.
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(1 Reply)
:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
Sorry for my bad grammar. IT's like 02:50 am right now and I drank some vodka.
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:iconneustrasbourg:
NeuStrasbourg Featured By Owner Jun 5, 2012
Unfortunately, I think we'll have to take his estimated death toll with a grain of salt, to say the least. Sure, his arguments are pretty solid, with new technologies doing away with total war... yet throughout history, experts have been saying that new technologies will make war shorter and less deadly. WWI and II were supposed to be short and unspectacular affairs. I guess this is the best sort of prediction one can do RATIONALLY, but unfortunately, wars tend to be series of horrible and escalating accidents.
I can already see the media and official propaganda telling people modern war was a cool, limited and video-game like affair in the first month of the conflict, supported by experts such as Friedman... They sortof already do this today. But then it's getting much worse...

-

Alliances:
I was rather stunned at first how he predicts a conflict between Germany/France and the US, seeing how some broad geopolitical considerations aside, they don't seem to carry that much of a grudge against them. Sure, they support Turkey in an opportunistic fashion, but I would kinda expect them to back out as soon as the US does as much as cough ("Oh wait, your peace plans for Poland are different from ours, we had NO IDEA! Sorry, our bad").
Then again, Friedman is wise enough to make no ideological or political predictions whatsoever. Who knows what these countries will be like by then. Perhaps the US will be viewed in Europe as a fascist Empire that needs to be stopped "now or never". Perhaps the countries involved really will have radically different governments and ideological backgrounds than what they have now. Friedman deals with strategic interests alone, not with the way the war is justified. That's prudent, but it also makes it a little harder to follow.

I guess one could explain this scenario with a general ideology of (somehwat desperate and pointless) "resistance" against the american empire, perhaps even to the point that muslim and west european sentiments converge on the "big devil" narrative. After all, the USA will resemble the Empire from 'Star Wars' in many ways by then. Perhaps there will be a long cold war before conflict escalates, giving it a nice "end game" feel
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jun 6, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman was quick to point out that WWII was predicted to be incredibly bloody by only a few historians who realized the implications of the invention of high explosives. His German/France argument was VERY wishy washy. He more or less said that it could go either way. I personally am not sold on his timeline, particularly how he just brushes off climate change, and is frankly VERY conservative assessment of technological development in this century. I think it could potentially unravel around the 2030s.
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:iconcyberphoenix001:
CyberPhoenix001 Featured By Owner May 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I recently had a thought which might be relevant here, I don't know. In Friedman's book he points out how demand from the military greatly speeds up the implementation of new technologies that are invented, for instance with DARPA creating the Internet to communicate quickly in wartime, and then entrepreneurs finding public uses for said technologies, which then become ubiquitous, like with the Internet evolving into a giant hub of communication.

So, it got me thinking about the recent "Project Avatar", announced by the Pentagon. It's basically the same thing as the movie Surrogates, with soldiers in remote control of humanoid robots who go on the battlefield in their place. It sounds like a brilliant idea, as its removes the whole problem of soldiers getting killed, which is a major job hazard for a soldier :P.

So let's say that World War III flares up and billions of dollars are pumped into R&D for these "Avatars". They are then successfully deployed against the Coalition in Eastern Europe. After the war, entrepreneurs snap up the technology and mass-produce them for the public. They become as common as cars, and humanity willingly becomes part-robot.

I don't know about you, but I quite like this scenario. It would mean the end of soldiers dying on the battlefield, and robots becoming a mainstay in society.

That's just my thoughts.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman is very much in the Machiavellian school where the military is the primary driver of every society. He was quick to point out that almost all significant technological development is a product of defense spending, directly or indirectly (he was quick to site the Internet and the Microchip). Avatars probably won't be reliable replacements for soliders, but they would suppliment their forces overall. The reason being that cyber warfare will play a big roll in impeding them.
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:iconcyberphoenix001:
CyberPhoenix001 Featured By Owner May 26, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
One more quick question: why are us Aussies part of the Alliance? Is it because the Indonesians have invaded PNG, or is it the unconditional love we all share for our great protector, the US of A?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 26, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I wouldn't call it unconditional love, just economic and military necessity. Without the US and China the Australian economy would not exist, and with the Strait of Malacca controlled by the Coalition, therefor blocking Australia from India, who you also need, you would have no choice but to ally yourselves with a historic and essential trading and military partner.
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:iconnazjaraj:
NazjaRaj Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Student Digital Artist
YES! THE PHILIPPINES IS ALLIED!!!!
why is mindanao red?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Independence sponsored by the Turks, they're essentially just a puppet regime.
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:iconnazjaraj:
NazjaRaj Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Student Digital Artist
Turks?!
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Ottomans are back.
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:iconnazjaraj:
NazjaRaj Featured By Owner May 3, 2012  Student Digital Artist
wait, how?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 3, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Not the ottomans per se, but a regime similar to them in historical precedent.
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:iconcatsuitbodysuit:
CATSUITBODYSUIT Featured By Owner Dec 29, 2011
a true ww3 is annonymus vs un
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:iconarminius1871:
Arminius1871 Featured By Owner Nov 27, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Cool map!

I think if we have a real 3. ww, Russia would ally with China and Iran and overroll Europe and the middle east. China would attack America.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Nov 28, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
To even attack America any attacker/invader would need to first deal with military bases on its borders and then sequre control of the seas from the US navy inadition to having control of the skys, it could be done but with extreme difficulty
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Nov 29, 2011
In the book that this map is depicting, the Japanese attack the satellite network the US uses to command and control the sea; then, they launch aircraft ad missiles faster than anything in service today to bomb military targets. Its like jabbing someone in the eyes and then hitting them in their vulnerable areas.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Nov 29, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Thats sort of what I was saying, athough I don't know if anything like the book depicts would work in the present which is why I said what I said
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:iconarminius1871:
Arminius1871 Featured By Owner Nov 28, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Thatīs true it would be hard! What if China would invade over Alaska through Canada to America + using air-force and massive bombing?
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Nov 29, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Thats likely to work as an invasion method if done right but then you have the problem of working in very bad terrain, tundra and the like are not really conductive to an attackers chances of success as the napoleonic wars and WWII show but they are great for defenders chances of winning
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:iconay-deezy:
AY-Deezy Featured By Owner Nov 27, 2011  Professional Digital Artist
The Turkey influence isn't it a map from Strafor ?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 28, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
yeah
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:iconay-deezy:
AY-Deezy Featured By Owner Nov 27, 2011  Professional Digital Artist
EDIT : Stratfor.
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