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Friedman's Empire by YNot1989 Friedman's Empire by YNot1989
*NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization): Oldest Alliance of the US, having little to no actual authority since the Second Cold War

*APESC (Asia-Pacific Economic and Security Council): Established at the end of WWIII the organization permitted Japan to maintain a limited sphere of influence in the Pacific while acknowledgement Chinese sovereignty and American Naval supremacy.

*AFTA (American Free Trade Association): Established during the Second Cold War from NAFTA, while allowing some US military presence in every member state.

*Visigrad Group (The Polish Bloc): Established just prior to the Second Cold War, the Polish Bloc is the most powerful entity in Europe, rivaled only by the Turks.

*EMC (Eastern Mediterranean Conference): Established at the End of WWIII the EMC limits the Turkish sphere of influence and allows them to continue to be a stabilizing force in the Middle East and North Africa, but is also intended to balance the Poles in the Balkans.

*APGS (Alliance of Persian Gulf States): Established shortly after the collapse of the Saudi Kingdom, this economic and security organization formalized Persian dominance in South-West Asia, and was intended to balance the Turks and the Indians.

Following the end of the Third World War, the United States ascended to be the unquestioned hegemony of the world. After years of tripping over their own weight the Americans have finally begun to understand how to run a responsible Empire; carving the world's great powers into several sphere's of influence, balancing one off of the other.

The US Government has issued a number of reforms over the years to better handle its position of geopolitical dominance, while the Republican Experiment has been preserved via a series of new Amendments to the Constitution. America now spends less on defense than at any other time in the last 100 years, but it still exceeds the budgets of every other great power. The Battlestar network has been expanded and upgraded to administer a planet wide network of hypersonic UAVs, spy satellites, a largely unmanned NAVY, and a small, but lethal force of power-armor equipped special forces units and UGVs.

Domestically the 2060s are a time of economic prosperity greater than any time in US History. At 420 million people, and spared the demographic problems of Eurasia thanks to an aggressive immigration policy, the United States's economy outshines that of the next five largest economies combined.

The technology developed during the War, has given the country, and the world, more opportunities for prosperity and leisure than ever before; but they have also forced a new social movement. Genetic Engineering, robotics, and information technology have all advanced to a point to where their affect on society is forcing every major religious group to reconcile with a planet that no longer functions under the old dogmas. Marriage is virtually non-existent in the Developed World, and birth-rates are beginning to level off even in the US, which had long since been an outlier.

The end of the war forced the borders of the former Russian Federation to solidify, and ended the formal occupation of much of the Russian Heartland by the Visigrad Group. The Iranians and Turks have brought stability to the Middle East, shifting it to a largely service based economy now that oil has been replaced entirely by America's vast network of space-based Solar Arrays. East Asia has finally normalized, and China has finally broken its cycle of rapid rise and collapse to become a modern Economy. NATO remains, but is little more than an informal American vassal, while the Polish Bloc (Visigrad Group) bestrides Europe like a Giant. The Americans now have absolute unity in the Western Hemisphere, but to their southern border an old and long forgotten enemy is beginning to rise...

**This scenario was conceived by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade"
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:iconsomethingsomethingma:
Does U.S. belong as an official member to all these groups? Or does it just somehow have a hand in them? Also, I'm assuming NATO is an essentially OAS/CIS-like entity now? Meaning that it is essentially non-existent?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 25, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No membership in the Polish or Turkish Blocs. And NATO is more of a British Run, American overseen entity.
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:iconjuho-lee:
Juho-Lee Featured By Owner Feb 1, 2014  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
I read his book, and I must say your work is quite accurate and impressive. 
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Nov 16, 2013
I like this a lot. My only real questions are: why, when and how did the US acquire its numerous new territories. I've noticed Greenland, various Caribbean islands, Guyana, Panama and a chunk of Canada filled in in the same color as America  
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 16, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
They bought Greenland from Denmark after WWIII to supply their polar orbiting Battlestars. Guyana was annexed in pieces, first with the English speaking portion which is seeking a Puerto Rico like relationship with the US anyway, and the French and dutch portions were annexed after the World War to prevent a foreign power from accessing equatorial launch sites. Panama was essentially annexed to counter Mexico.
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:iconkyuzoaoi:
kyuzoaoi Featured By Owner Oct 22, 2013  Student Artist
What would Japan's population would be by 2100? I read such scenarios that the population by 2200 would be as low as 15 million, but even with the current decline rates it would be very unrealistic. More like 50 million.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 22, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'd lean more towards 80, but I think I'm being generous.
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:icondoliwaq:
doliwaq Featured By Owner Oct 13, 2013
Beautifull world! Poland with East Borders, free Kurdistan, Uigurstan, Tibet, big Finland, united Ireland,
divided Russia.
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:icongreatjester:
GreatJester Featured By Owner Jul 23, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist
It's impossible to make analyse of the next 100 years. If I would told german solider in 1913 that in 2013 he will be protecting Europe together with french, polish and british forces, he wouldn't belive me. 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 2, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
True, but there were people who made some surprisingly accurate predictions of the 20th Century back then, its those that get too hung up on details that get screwed. Friedman's scenario looks at BIG events like world changing shifts in demographics, the transition from one economic model to another based on necessity. I'm taking that and trying to fill in details with artistic license.
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:iconkazi2000:
kazi2000 Featured By Owner Jul 2, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist
I like very much how George Friedman does his job ! I belive he's one the best analysts in the world at the moment ... if not the best !
One of the things that captured by attention was one of his ideeas, that Poland might emerge at a power in Europe and it will be the "northern pivot" of USA in relation to Russia, while Romania should assume the role of the "southern anchor" in the same matter.
I found this map and i belive it suggests more or less, what Friedman had in mind: [link]
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:iconkazi2000:
kazi2000 Featured By Owner Nov 25, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
nice work !
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner May 25, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Y'know, at first I was a tad surprised that Mexico was the rising enemy, especially considering they're allies of the US in this map. But, then again, the Soviet Union was our ally during World War II, so I don't know really :shrug:
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 25, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
All allies, are allies of convenience.
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner May 25, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Too true, but what do you mean by the "Republican experiment"? Is that basically what we've seen from the Reagan, Bush Senior, and Bush Junior administrations or is it something else that I'm unaware of?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 25, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No no no, the Republican Experiment means the preservation of a lasting Democratic, Federal, Republic.
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner May 25, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Ooooooh, I wasn't thinking of the type of governance, I was thinking party ideology for some goofy reason, my bad! :P
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:iconcyberphoenix001:
CyberPhoenix001 Featured By Owner May 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
What military use would Greenland be? I mean, no offense to any Greenlanders reading, but it's pretty much a frozen wasteland. I know that Alaska is too, but that was to gain control of the Pacific, and from what I've seen the US already, they already control much of, if not all, the Atlantic.

Are they trying to contain Canada? :)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I just thought it would be nice to buy all of Europe's old possessions in the Western Hemisphere.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner May 1, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
What exactly is the Singularity, it sounds rather omenious for some reason ominous
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 1, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Its the point where technological development moves so fast that you have to enhance your mind by merging it with a computer just to keep up with it; machines making better machines.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner May 1, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Sounds a little we'd be opening Pandoras box, that much technological progress at that rate that fast can't be controled can it ?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 1, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
It's expected to happen sometime around mid-century.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner May 1, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
I guess its a good thing then as long as people are careful
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well a lot will happen between then and now, hopefully it won't be a revolution but more of a gradual evolution.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Hopefuly, to much change at once while not allways bad can be difficult and distabilising.

I take it that it would lead to Kardashev Type 1 Civilization ?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 2, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Easily.
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:icontogusatravis:
togusatravis Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2012
It seems that in this future world they obviously have some type of artificial intelligence technology. Due to the advance of robotics into the armed forces described above. And also the fact that AI is being used in limited capacity for modern military robotics today. I just wonder how we could just still ignore the problem of having intelligent machines having so much power. I think it is a serious question. The whole concept of giving robots the power to kill to begin with is something creepy. It's can of worms that can have tons of unpredictable consequences. Most modern military robotics technology like UAV's require some navigation from pilots, who fly multiple planes at a time. And for political, strategic, budgetary, or technological reasons those pilots jobs may no longer exist. Putting machines in charge who's intelligence may not be very well understood from every facet. Today AI is rather unsophisticated, but increase's in it's capabilities on monthly basis. Projecting that into the future you have the capabilities to create strong AI. Now I am not saying this is the kind of AI they would have in the battle star network described by the info above. But what ever AI they would have, it would be superior than anything we have today. And it's behavior would be unpredictable due to the fact that AI research today is influenced more and more by neurology then by artificial algorythems. An if computer scientists of the future need to develop some type of ethical, logical, and heuristic capabilities in some type of robot on the battlefield in a limited amount of time; on a limited budget. They might turn to the much more advanced neurology of the future to cut corners. That could (not saying it will),make a frankenstein's monster that can become self aware and kill us all! Or decides it doesn't want to defend the Earth from Mexico! It wants to sniff the blue alien mushrooms near Gliese581!
Now I am not very experienced with Friedmans work, or what era he was writing from. Or if he took into account things like AI, and mores law. Technology must not be underestimated in what it can do!

I hope I don't come off as some Kurtzwelian freak. I just wonder what your thought's are on the issue if there's an issue at all?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 27, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Ok, sorry for the late reply, but I'll try to answer as best I can.
Friedman makes it clear that he isn't particularly impressed with the present state of robots, and doesn't expect AI to really come into its own until we have another paradigm shift (likening it to the switch from Vacuum tubes to the integrated circuit leading to the microcomputer revolution). He expects this to occur in the next 10 to 20 years and for it to happen in the US as did the silicon chip and the internet. He believes it will most likely happen after we move beyond silicon as the primary material for semiconductors (most likely to carbon based optical computers). He doesn't put much stock in neural networks, and believes that AIs will be by design purpose built, and not capable of becoming self aware like every poorly researched sci-fi movie has lead everyone to believe.

Friedman isn't a Kurzweilian, and to be honest I think he is drastically underestimating technological growth in the near future. Particularly relating to his views on immigration reform in the 2030s to handle a labor shortage. He doesn't see robotics becoming as ubiquitous as many singularitists see until the 2060s and 70s.
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:icontogusatravis:
togusatravis Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2012
No worry's, I think it's cool you responded! Technology seems to be growing exponentially. And it seems that it can only do that if we have enough resources, will, and the technological capability to do so. Within the decade it may not be possible to make silicon based semiconductors any smaller due to temperature and quantum interactions. But hopefully we have good photonic, and maybe quantum computing in the future.

Neural Networks are used all the time in the world of finance. I really don't understand Friedman's revulsion towards them.

It could go Friedman's way though. Photonic and quantum computing may not become practical. And resources could be pinched in some way in the future. The decade we live in is crucial. What are your thoughts on that?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman doesn't have a revulsion towards Neural Networks, the man is damn near a Vulcan he seems so emotionless. He simply thinks that they aren't all they're cracked up to be at the moment. I'm convinced thought that by the end of the decade optical computers will be commonplace, and quantum computers will be entering limited use.
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:iconel-jorro:
El-Jorro Featured By Owner Apr 19, 2012
Why exactly is marriage non-existent?
And how are religions changing?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 19, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Marriage is already an unnecessary institution, lasting as a symbol of monogamous love a decade at best, and after that if it stays together its really just a financial contract between two parties.

By mid-century declining birthrates brought on by people having less reason to have kids, will in turn be less inclined to marry. There will still be monogamous long term relationships, but like most people in the under-30 age group today, those relationships will be expected to eventually grow apart and there will be no reason to complicate a breakup with money.

Religions will be forced to change to deal with the fact that the world will be far more egalitarian, and God will simply be unnecessary to explain many of the phenomena of the world.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Aug 10, 2012
I agree with what you say about marrige i guess. But I dissagree about religon. How could God not be an explaination of the events in this universe? Did we see the first lifeforms form on earth? Did humans find out there is no afterlife? Also, with the rising popularity of robotics, many alienated people will probably be joining the Unified Church of Christ.

But that is my only complant here.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 10, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
We've recreated much of the origin of life in the lab, including the origin of basic and more complex proteins, as well as the cell wall. We've observed evolution in bacteria and viruses, to say nothing of human influenced evolution of dogs, livestock, and farm foods. We've all but proven the Big Bang Theory; and Quantum Physics has advanced to reveal the Universe to be far more complex than any religion has allowed for (for example Causality is pretty much toast thanks to quantum entanglement). The world no longer needs religion, Science has provided explanations for all that it has tried to explain, and has gone beyond it, revealing questions religion has never thought to ask.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Aug 11, 2012
That isnt my point. we created life in a lab there is no mortal alive to make the first life forms on earth (unless you use sci-fi ideas like anchint astronauts or time travel). I also agree with the big bang idea, but I think that there was something that caused it to take place. In any case, It doesn't matter how complex it turns out the universe is, religon will find a way to change to those new discoverys
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 11, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, the Big Bang occurred because it occurred. Prior to the Big Bang causality didn't exist, meaning you don't need a cause to have an effect. And religion still won't acknowledge discoveries from over a century ago as legitimate. Hell, the Catholics only recently gave Gravity the OK. The world is advancing too fast for religion to keep up.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Aug 12, 2012
you said earlier that casuality was always meaningless. besides, only the official organizations ever have trouble keeping up with the times, there are plenty of philosophers and theologins who have come up with explanations for the latest dicoverys. Humanity can't outgrow "superstitions" so easily, being spirituall is an important part of our nature.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Apr 16, 2012
I don't understand why Saudi Arabia was partitioned here.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The more oil rich region of Saudi Arabia around the Gulf has a large Shiite population. Once Iran asserts its dominance over the Gulf (Friedman's prediction), and the US becomes the world's largest exporter of energy (again, Friedman) Saudi Arabia will be politically irrelevant, but control over a major water way won't be. So for the sake of artistic licence I'm guessing that Iran will back a break away region from what will eventually be a very poor and destabilized Saudi Arabia.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Apr 17, 2012
Ah, interesting. I like it. :) And I understand the artistic licence you are taking with a lot of things. I read both of Friedman's books (it is so hard to find his earlier stuff, fyi) and Friedman only says so much about the aftermath of WWIII in his scenario. So nice touch. :)
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Apr 17, 2012
Also, I was curious when the Saudis might end up facing a crisis on internal stability. Regardless of Friedman, Peak Oil for the Saudis is forecast to occur in 2027. Obviously an oil-driven economy like Saudi Arabia will face a crisis during or after this point, if you are interested.
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2012
Still, the "Russia splinters" thing still comes across as odd. And so is "Superpower Poland."
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Great Power, not Superpower. South Korea, the UK, France, these are all Great Powers.
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2012
I see. Also, it seems as though the EU imploded.
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:iconlowtuff:
Lowtuff Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2012
A nice continuation of the Friedman prediction maps, I am eager to see how you continue it into Mexico's rise. :)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jun 19, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
He really leaves that alone past the 2080s, and sounds like he's not entirely sure how the scenario will play out beyond some kind of confrontation between Mexico and the US. Personally I like to think a Second American Civil War would be the most likely outcome, with Mexico supporting the secessionists.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Aug 10, 2012
are you going to continue these maps with one about superpower mexico? that would be very cool
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 10, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'm contimplating doing a Second American Civil War scenario around Friedman's "Confrontation," with Mexico. He makes no predictions to the specifics of the American-Mexican conflict in the early 22nd Century, but he's implied that Mexico would support a secessionist movement in the Southwest.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Aug 11, 2012
I can imagine some of those other organizations backing mexico and latin america. The poles seemed pretty pissed that the U.S. had unilateral control of space so that could be an issue in this conflict.
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