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Broken Alliance by YNot1989 Broken Alliance by YNot1989
----2011----
*September, the ESA agrees to allow the Russian Space Agency to begin launching from Kourou, French Guiana.
*October: The Visegrád Group meets to discuss a number of issues pertaining to European Union and NATO integration, specifically the Economic policies of Western Europe and their increasing weight on the Eastern European economies.

----2012----
*Moscow-Berlin Accord is signed between Russia and Germany, increasing trade between Russia and Europe
*Parliamentary Elections in the Ukraine end with accusations of mass voter fraud by Russian operatives who oppose NATO membership. Riots soon break out and NATO forces prepare to deploy to Kiev to restore order. The move is delayed when Russian troops assist the Ukrainian military in taking back control of the capitol. As tensions mount President Putin threatens to embargo oil and natural gas exports to Europe if NATO continues to, "interfere with Russian affairs." The Second Cold War begins.
*A coalition of NATO countries agree to continue trade with Russia and not get involved with American military buildup efforts in Eastern Europe. The Berlin Treaty is signed at years end, effectively dividing NATO into two Blocs.
*The Visegrád Summit ends with America promising a massive influx of money and weapons to Active NATO members, known as the Polish Bloc by the media; while Eastern European NATO forces agree to allow the positioning of US nuclear countermeasures in Europe.

----2013----
*Belarus signs BRCU Treaty with Russia creating the Union State. The same year Russia annexes Georgia.
*The Commonwealth of Independent States and the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are reorganized into the Eurasian Union.
*The US begins technological transfer to Eastern European allies.
*President Obama, facing little opposition from a mostly defunct Tea Party movement in the face of a revived Russian superpower, pushes through a number of tax increases to pay for a number of military programs to combat the Russians, defunct programs like the Linear electron laser and the Electromagnetic Rail gun are revived while Prompt Global Strike is given a massive boost in funding.

**This scenario was conceived by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade"
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:iconsaint-tepes:
Saint-Tepes Featured By Owner Dec 24, 2014  Hobbyist Artist
You might remake the map because Serbia will be accepted in EU in 2020, Moldova is shown more pro-EU and Ukraine wants to be part of EU and Nato
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 30, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
If there is an EU in 2020.
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:iconstealer-l1f3:
Stealer-L1F3 Featured By Owner Mar 8, 2015  Student Writer
The EU's economy is still growing strong, and now with increasing trade with the US, it'll grow into a symbiosis between America and Europe, so you can damn well expect the European Union to be around until America starts turning the world into an empire of Democracy and Freedom.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 9, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The EU's southern nations have unemployment rates that rival the US during the great depression, Germany is exporting more than half of their GDP to the rest of Europe making it impossible for those economies to compete, nationalist and separatist movements are growing stronger every day, and Greece has called Merkle's bluff about debt repayments. The EU is on its last legs.
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:iconstealer-l1f3:
Stealer-L1F3 Featured By Owner Mar 10, 2015  Student Writer
Doesn't look like it from a point of view from inside the European Union, from a country about to leave it anyway if the right party gets power. Not all of the Southern nations are pulling the EU down, the Northern and Central EU nations are the ones keeping it alive as well as letting the total EU GDP exceed that of the US by 1.1 trillion USD.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 12, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No nation is keeping it alive, it exists at this point purely to keep the German economy afloat in spite of its over-dependence on exports. Southern Europe has no reason to stay in it anymore, Britain was never fully committed to begin with, and the dynamism of Eastern Europe is only hindered by EU anti-entrepreneurial policy. The EU GDP has been growing at between 2%and 3% since 2010, the EU's has been falling from 2.1% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2013 according to the World Bank. Today its around 0.3% growth, that's stagnant, made worse by an economic depression in Southern Europe. Depressions can't be solved by fiscal policy, they're social catastrophe's that take nothing short of an event like WWII to turn things around. Most estimates point to the US economy continuing to steadily grow while Europe's continues to stagnate and decline. The US will surpass the EU in short order.
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:iconstealer-l1f3:
Stealer-L1F3 Featured By Owner Mar 13, 2015  Student Writer
The US by now has damn near surpassed EU's economy, because the US is the homeland of Capitalism and it knows its own system better than any other country in the world. I mean, 2.6 trillion USD increase in GDP from 2013 and 2014, compared to other years, is a pretty good reading.

But the EU cannot get a proper economic rise because it keeps smaller countries forced down. Before Latvia joined the EU in 2004, it had tons of factories, lots of jobs and people were generally happier. After 2004, factories were sealed due to EU's orders, jobs were lost, people got unhappy, and even unhappier after the Euro was forced on them WITHOUT PUBLIC CONSENT. This is why the EU is actually stagnating - it restricts the economic development of its more recent members, therefore the whole pressure is on Germany's economy, and even Germany isn't doing well now as can be evidenced by the Bundeswehr being barely able to keep up with repairs.
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:iconrogueleader1000:
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner Oct 16, 2014
Is this a prequel to the Second Renaissance, which also mentions a Second Cold War between America and Russia?
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:iconrogueleader1000:
Ah I see this is a prequel to your other map, the Fall of the Union State. You should really make a prequel map for Second Renaissance, to at least show how everything went to hell between now and then.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Sep 1, 2014
Its interesting how, with this actually playing out nowadays, how the alliances are indeed shaping up to look like this. Britain and the US assisting East Europe directly, while Germany and France remaining more rhetorical with their threats.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 2, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman called it, I just made it look pretty.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014
I'm aware that the Eurasian Union is to become a real thing come 2015, but please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it just an economic union? Or will maps have to be redrawn?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
You are quite naive if you believe an Economic Union is ever just about trade regulations, the Europeans tried that with the EU and its failing spectacularly. The Russians aren't so naive; the Eurasian Union is about consolidating power around the Russian sphere of influence and securing a buffer zone between Russia, and the American sphere.
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:iconmkv829:
Mkv829 Featured By Owner Jul 28, 2013
Moldova este Romana
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:iconijao:
Ijao Featured By Owner Dec 15, 2012
Why are Serbia and Bosnia in the Euroasian union?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 17, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Russia needed a port at the Med.
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:icontacomaster233:
Tacomaster233 Featured By Owner Sep 16, 2012
Georgia will never surrender to Russia.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 16, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Not really up to you now is it?
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:icontacomaster233:
Tacomaster233 Featured By Owner Sep 17, 2012
No :( but still.
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
Hello, it's me again. :D
Why don't you try based on the famous russian geopolitical analyst Igor Panarin ?.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
That moron who predicted in 1998 that by 2010 the US would break up into six regions? What ever for?
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
2010 is too early but everithing is posible :D
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
Oh yes, and Firedman said that China and Russia were going to balkanize... Not posible.
I been to Stratfor site, man is like the CIA with the same line oif thinking but private....
Why Luna hired them?.
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2012
and by try I mean a map about the US dividied in 6.
I would do one with Argentina dividied in 6.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Dec 14, 2011
I'm looking at the Balkans and wondering why Albania and Croatia wouldn't be closer to the Polish Bloc when Serbia is in the Russian camp. There's obviously the Kosovo issue, for example. I do think it's kind of funny how Mr. Friedman is himself Hungarian and Hungary comes to do really well off in his proposed future. :P
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 14, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Croats let the Poles use one of their ports, but they're official neutral beyond that.
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:iconscarfield:
Scarfield Featured By Owner Dec 3, 2011
Splended map as always, but a few questions regarding the Nordic countries:
Did Finland become a member of NATO, before entering the Polish Bloc?
On what reasons does Norway, Iceland and Danmark make their stand in the NATO divide?
And Greenland as an independent country and part of the Polish Bloc, in contrast to Denmark?

+ a non-nordic question: What effect does this have on the EU?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 3, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yes, their hatred of a powerful Russia being control of most of Europe's oil was enough for them to join. The Rest of the Nordic countries remained because they were wary of Germany's tech trading with the Russians. And Yes Greenland is finally free.

The EU has pretty much fractured by this point. Mainland western Europe is still in the Union, but beyond that its pretty much gone.
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:iconscarfield:
Scarfield Featured By Owner Feb 23, 2012
Thanks for your reply and answers, but there are a few things I have been noticeing or made aware of:
1) France as part of the uninvolved seems a bit of:
a) Given its nuclear energy, only 10 % comes from fossil fuel, so it is not threatend by Russian oil stops, the increasing renewable energy sector makes this the case even more
b) OK, they sells ships to Russia and are not always that fund of the Anglo-Americans, but choosing an Russian-German hegemony of Europe over Nato, especial one given more funding by the US?
c) The idea of a uninvoled France seems more as a reaction to it's decline to enter the Iraq war and totaly disregarding France military actions in Africa, most recently in Lybia
2) Germany do mainly imports its fossil fuel from Russia indeed, but this is also a Sword of Damocles for Russia and it's economy, potancialy ending a cold war before it could start:
a) Germany also imports from GB and Norway, new oil discoveries on Nor. soil makes it even possible to turn to that scource, if it pleases the Germans to undermine the Russians
b) Oil and gas through Turkey is also possible, Oil from a pro-american Iraq and Iran as you suggest in an later map too
c) Again: given new US funding, why choose the Russians
3) Russia:
The anti-West slogans and attitute seems more as show for the masses, given the cold war loss and dreadful nineties the West forced it trough, to renforce Russia as a Superpower. In the end Russian has more in common with the West against China, it's just that it wants to be a power of it's self, and not a puppet of the West. The Russian oil to Europe is paying a rearming of Russia, which the West seems to prefer to Chinese Hegemony of Asia( just saying: Siberia: 15 million people in an fossil fueland mineral-filled area three times the size of China, next to 1.3 billion people).

Ofcourse this is Dr. Freidmans conclusion, and it has it's intresting issues, but still...
For the record: I'm not pro-Putin, anti-Chinese, pro/anti-US/Europe, just trying to see issues from the different perspectives
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 25, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Ok, I'm gonna do my best to reply to this VERY long list.
1) The French are just as threatened by Russian oil and natural gas embargoes as any other country. Why? Well despite a healthy mass transit network, they still use oil for transportation, but more importantly they aren't the only country in Europe. If the price of oil goes beyond the EUs cap the Union will start bleeding money, on top of that you have to consider the economic implications high gas prices will have on other European Countries. Suppose Germany (which has no nuclear industry worth mentioning) went two weeks without Russian oil and nat. gas, the price of food in Germany would go up and so would the cost of manufacturing. If Europe's greatest economic power has to scale back production, and its people are forced to save money to pay for higher energy costs, they'll be less inclined to spend money on products coming in from France, and the French will see a drop in consumer confidence as the German recession affects the goods they normally import form that country. Until everyone is energy independent, no one really is.

2) By this logic the US should never have felt threatened in the slightest in the 1970s when OPEC was born and they periodically shut off the pipes to the West.

3) Its not a show; if anything's a show its the Protests. They offer the illusion of Democracy; but the reality is that Russia has two choices before it: Sacrifice sovereignty and become part of the American-sphere; or make a confrontation with the US to retain national sovereignty. They have always, and will most likely choose the latter. Especially with the US and its sphere moving ever closer to Russia's borders. Georgia and the Ukraine becoming part of the EU or NATO is terrifying to the Russian leadership; it takes away any natural border they have left in Eastern Europe, and would give the Caucasus a powerful ally to crack their southern border.
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:iconscarfield:
Scarfield Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2012
Yeah sorry about that,a lot of question, that's me in a nutshell
1 & 2) I was just thinking in the way the Reagen Admin. acted when thy faced that excectly problem, a Europe depending on Russian Oil. They bargained with Saudi Arabia to drive oil prices down and therefore ruined Soviet's main source of revenue, something that it could be repeated with other oil sources and renewable, and having in mind Putin's plan for future rearming needs petro-dollars... But you have absoluttly right, it would definately come with a price and possible defections to the Russian Side

3) "Especially with the US and its sphere moving ever closer to Russia's borders. Georgia and the Ukraine becoming part of the EU or NATO is terrifying to the Russian leadership; it takes away any natural border they have left in Eastern Europe, and would give the Caucasus a powerful ally to crack their southern border." I don't disagree with that and I don't think it disagrees with my comment, that "In the end Russian has more in common with the West against China, it's just that it wants to be a power of it's self, and not a puppet of the West." I'm just think in the lines of a repeat of the "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" thinking behind the Sino-American "Alliance"( in the word most loosest meening) against the Soviets after the Sino-Soviet Schism, only this time against the Chinese. Hey, Putin and Obama are propobly not "bff", but if Mao and Nixon could work out something...Just trying to think beyond the "with us or against us" Idea, but I see Doc. Freidman discard China (something I don't) and than off course no need for Russian-Nato "aliance" ( again in it's weakest meening possible) and cue Cold War 2.0. and this scenario is possible. Thank for answers, and I hope I'm not been to much of an Smarta**
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
[link]
This interview helps too.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 26, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
This is actually a really good video explaining this stuff a little better: [link]
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:iconscarfield:
Scarfield Featured By Owner Feb 28, 2012
Thank you for the videos, i do agree, though I think the disagree I and dr. Freidman about China and what affect it would have on Russia and The West. A strong China- Russia and Nato turn against it, a weak China- Russia and Nato turn against each other
Stratfor has a good Video about it, I just side more with
Kaplan, though Friedman has off course some good points
[link]
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:iconneustrasbourg:
NeuStrasbourg Featured By Owner Oct 24, 2011
It's fun to read Friedman's predictions, but I really wonder how they will prove against reality. 2012 isn't all that far from now. I mean, what he predicts are major nation-to-nation conflicts in a very near future.

Also he seems awfully determined to break Russia :P
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 24, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
He's a little surprised that we didn't go in for the kill in 91'.

But yeah, short of the Greenland Ice sheet falling into the ocean, causing my Climate Change scenario, I'm having a harder time seeing us avoiding Cold War II
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:iconkcammy:
KCammy Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2011
Suriname?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
French Guiana
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:iconkcammy:
KCammy Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2011
I'm pretty sure someone from Guiana would be insulted by someone calling them Surinamese. :D
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I fixed it.
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:iconavroarrow:
AvroArrow Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011
Couple of quick questions one is ANZUS still in effective in this timeline, if it is has it merged with the active members of NATO. The second one which side is Canada going with, and as branch questions XD how did places like Denmark and the Netherlands losses their heavy "I rather be dead then red" attitude? Like always craze map, very nicely done.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Anglo-sphere will continue to remain tightly in the orbit of the United States, and Russia has taken to capitalism like cancer to a prostate, so the, "better dead than red," thing isn't an issue.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011
I know these countries in white, like Sweden, Austria, and Sweden, began to be seen as indefinitely neutral, but I could see the Swedes joining the Polish Bloc out of fear of Russia. As well, Im curious where you think proxy wars would occur in this world.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Caucasus for sure; probably in the Balkans too; Friedman is pretty sure that even after the US disengages from Israel they'll try to start some shit with Palestine, and I wouldn't be too surprised at some fighting in Burma and maybe Central Asia. I'm doubtful they'll get involved in Korea once the North collapses, nothing beyond funding a few resistance groups to make life difficult for us and China during the reunification process.
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011
Curious, though you it's also interesting how the Russian threat basically revived old military experiments.
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:iconamongthesatanic:
AmongTheSatanic Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Artist
Always the red Russia blue West scheme... ugh.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Those damn Reds they're always scheming and conniving. Sometimes they do both, I call it, scheniving.
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:iconamongthesatanic:
AmongTheSatanic Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Artist
The Union State isn't socialist.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'm not depicting them as such, its just supposed to be a color contrast thing.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Apr 7, 2012
some nation tend to be depicted by a certain color on maps due to that color being s symbol of that country, like Holland is often orange. Russias time as communist has resulted in it sometimes colored red.
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