Houghton Mifflin Social Studies
Chapter 16: The Mexico Problem
While the United States enjoyed an era of unprecedented prosperity during the 2060s and 70s following the end of the Third World War and the immigration reform policies of the 30s, the immigration issue had not been completely resolved.
Immigrants from Asia and Africa had long since assimilated and added their heritage to American society, however on the country's southern border immigrants from Mexico had largely retained their cultural identity and never truly assimilated with contemporary American culture. In the South-Western states, Spanish was the dominant language, Mexican traditions were exclusively observed over American ones, and the region's citizens were behaving more and more like people living under an occupying power rather than in a new country.
This problem was made all the more distressing with Mexico's rise as a major power. The country had largely avoided involvement in the Third World War, but its proximity to the United States and status as a transcontinental power with access to both oceans allowed for both an economic and population boom, making Mexico the second largest economy in the world by the 2080s, surpassing Japan. With this new Status Mexico found itself stretching its legs and forming trading alliances with the rest of the world, in some cases exclusively with Latin American powers which were also on the rise.
By the end of the 21st Century Mexico had instituted a series of policies granting people of Mexican decent living abroad representation in the Mexican Congress, and the right to vote in Presidential elections, effectively making them duel-citizens. This inexorably led to many American Southwestern states formalizing Mexico's policies and enforcing Mexican laws (many of which actually coincided with American law). A Mexicanos Libres party is eventually formed to represent the interests of Mexican Americans exclusively.
By the 2080s the immigration reforms are reversed to deal with rampant unemployment due to new technologies that extend the life of workers, and replace human labor with computers/robotics. This is most devastating in the South West, where many residents have never actually become US citizens.
By the 22nd Century, admits growing calls for autonomous status from Southwestern states, the President deploys the US military to close the border and begin deportation of resident-aliens who are largely of Mexican ancestry. The Governor of New Mexico deploys the New Mexico State National Guard to its borders to prevent the Army from entering their territory, refusing to honor the deportation act. A battle breaks out in the town of Shiprock resulting in the deaths of some 700 New Mexican National Guardsmen, and 300 members of the US Army. New Mexico secedes from the Union the next day. Arizona follows shortly thereafter as well as Texas and California. East Texas breaks off from Texas proper to stay in the union as the new state of Jacinto, as does Northern California. The Oklahoma Panhandle secedes from the union and joins in the partitioned Texas as the new State of Lamar.
Mexico itself formally recognizes the new nation of Aztlan on February 19th 2113, and commits military aid to the secessionists. The United States declares war on Mexico and vows to bring the rebel states back into the Union at any cost.
**This scenario was derived from the scenarios predicted by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade