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Border Control by YNot1989 Border Control by YNot1989
Houghton Mifflin Social Studies
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Chapter 16: The Mexico Problem
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While the United States enjoyed an era of unprecedented prosperity during the 2060s and 70s following the end of the Third World War and the immigration reform policies of the 30s, the immigration issue had not been completely resolved.

Immigrants from Asia and Africa had long since assimilated and added their heritage to American society, however on the country's southern border immigrants from Mexico had largely retained their cultural identity and never truly assimilated with contemporary American culture. In the South-Western states, Spanish was the dominant language, Mexican traditions were exclusively observed over American ones, and the region's citizens were behaving more and more like people living under an occupying power rather than in a new country.

This problem was made all the more distressing with Mexico's rise as a major power. The country had largely avoided involvement in the Third World War, but its proximity to the United States and status as a transcontinental power with access to both oceans allowed for both an economic and population boom, making Mexico the second largest economy in the world by the 2080s, surpassing Japan. With this new Status Mexico found itself stretching its legs and forming trading alliances with the rest of the world, in some cases exclusively with Latin American powers which were also on the rise.

By the end of the 21st Century Mexico had instituted a series of policies granting people of Mexican decent living abroad representation in the Mexican Congress, and the right to vote in Presidential elections, effectively making them duel-citizens. This inexorably led to many American Southwestern states formalizing Mexico's policies and enforcing Mexican laws (many of which actually coincided with American law). A Mexicanos Libres party is eventually formed to represent the interests of Mexican Americans exclusively.

By the 2080s the immigration reforms are reversed to deal with rampant unemployment due to new technologies that extend the life of workers, and replace human labor with computers/robotics. This is most devastating in the South West, where many residents have never actually become US citizens.

By the 22nd Century, admits growing calls for autonomous status from Southwestern states, the President deploys the US military to close the border and begin deportation of resident-aliens who are largely of Mexican ancestry. The Governor of New Mexico deploys the New Mexico State National Guard to its borders to prevent the Army from entering their territory, refusing to honor the deportation act. A battle breaks out in the town of Shiprock resulting in the deaths of some 700 New Mexican National Guardsmen, and 300 members of the US Army. New Mexico secedes from the Union the next day. Arizona follows shortly thereafter as well as Texas and California. East Texas breaks off from Texas proper to stay in the union as the new state of Jacinto, as does Northern California. The Oklahoma Panhandle secedes from the union and joins in the partitioned Texas as the new State of Lamar.

Mexico itself formally recognizes the new nation of Aztlan on February 19th 2113, and commits military aid to the secessionists. The United States declares war on Mexico and vows to bring the rebel states back into the Union at any cost.

**This scenario was derived from the scenarios predicted by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade
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:icontallestskil:
TallestSkil Featured By Owner Aug 12, 2014
lol, no. Ever.
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:iconmenapia:
menapia Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2014
Interesting timeline and original.  In the book "Warday" by Whitley Strieber and James Kunetka the authors do a travelogue of the U.S after a war like in your timeline and the main character does a tour of a country called Atzlan where the old Mexican territories and Navaho reserves break off and start their own republic.  When you look at old maps or collect old coins or banknotes you spot that things always change.  Brilliant timeline again
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Not really my timeline, just an extrapolation of the chain of events presented in Dr. Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years."


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:iconmenapia:
menapia Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2014

good work anyhow


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:iconturtledove23:
turtledove23 Featured By Owner Jan 21, 2014
I have read George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years" and found it an interesting read, although the thought of Poland as any sort of power  struck me as odd, then again like George said at the beginning of the book, who thought in the year 1900 that America of all countries would not only be a world power, but a super power that would have complete control over all the world's seas and be able to export it's culture and language through the media to every corner of the earth. But on to the scenario, I have a couple of questions if you don't mind

1. Due to these regions succeeding from the United States due to the Hispanic population living there wanting to have a land where their culture and language would be dominant do you see any mobs of American attacking Hispanics in other parts of America?
2. Would the succeeding regions have any sort of ethnic cleansing being committed against non Hispanic peoples in those areas under rebel control?
3. I saw in another post here that the U.S. has control of the Caribbean, when did that happen, I don't exactly remember that in the book? 
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:iconwarsie:
Warsie Featured By Owner Feb 15, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
Poland wasnt a power because it was in past centuries partitioned out. Before the partitions Poland-Lithuania was a strong power threatening Russia/Muscovy and whatnot. in 20th c Poland had a "intermarum" federation idea to keep both Germany and the USSR apart. It didnt work, but you could see Poland as a decent-rank power in 20thc assuming it doesnt get gangbanged like in OTL
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
1.) Yep
2.) Yep.
3.) Friedman mentions briefly that the Battlestars could be used to secure new territory for the US, and in the STRATFOR Geographic Challenge updates they mention that Cuba and the Caribbean is critical to American interests because of the amount of agro trade (and now natural gas) that flows from the Mississippi to European and Asian Markets through the Caribbean.
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:iconkraut007:
Kraut007 Featured By Owner Jan 6, 2014
Usually its all about Mexico gets its old territories back or the US conquers even more in the south.
But am own state of the Mexican Americans? That a interesting idea, especially if you consider, that Mexican Americans will be the majority in Texas and the Southwest soon. 
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013
Would you say your 2nd renaissance timeline will go similarly to this? If yes, will there be a clear victor, as opposed to Friedman, who left it open?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Actually, the Second Renaissance has not one, but two out and out wars between the United States and Mexico at the end of the 21st Century and during the early 22nd Century. Friedman's projection paints it as a war over a borderland, in my timeline that is just the catalyst for a much larger conflict.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 18, 2013
That conflict being?
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 18, 2013
Sorry I didn't realize that my brother had already asked the same question
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 17, 2013
That larger conflict being...?

Or is that something we'll have to wait for
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 20, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Patience.
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:icondeviant654:
deviant654 Featured By Owner Nov 2, 2013
I love your takes on future history. They show a lot of intelligent thought and a lot of imagination. And a great understanding of history. I hope you are expanding some of these into novels.
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:iconpandora211:
Pandora211 Featured By Owner Apr 13, 2013
"...effectively making them duel-citizens."

Ahem. That last should be "dual citizens." Duel is something else entirely and the hyphen is unnecessary.

Thanks for providing the info about George Friedman. I've been looking at your maps and reading the comments, and everyone except me seemed to be "in the know" about this series.

Your interpretation of future boundaries and your brief descriptions in the comments are indeed fun to read. Very admirable work. And perhaps a bit prescient as we see how today's governments (particularly our US congress) seem to be stuck in a quagmire of their own making.
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:icontallestskil:
TallestSkil Featured By Owner Feb 9, 2013
*ahem*

"Like fun."

That is all.

We're talkin' AS to the B here.
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:iconpandora211:
Pandora211 Featured By Owner Apr 13, 2013
@ TallestSkil: It's nice to see your nic migrate from Apple Insider to deviantArt. But clue me in: What is "AS to the B" refer to?
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:icontallestskil:
TallestSkil Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2013
Ah, ASB, as in 'Alien Space Bats', meaning a situation so implausible under normal rules that there would have to be an influence outside logic for it to happen.

ASB's used on alternatehistory.com for scenarios that employ science fiction or fantasy to achieve their end.
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Dec 15, 2012
If the US is so hellbent on not recognizing Aztlan independence, why change any of the state names?
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:iconwarsie:
Warsie Featured By Owner Feb 15, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
i dont think the US can tell a state what to name themselves in the constitution. like they could rename themselves to "The state of fuck you" and it'd be legal lol
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 15, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Because the US is wants reconstruction to go smoothly when they take them back into the Union.
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:iconoceanpelt:
OceanPelt Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2012
I sense a hint of "Warday" in this...
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:iconeddsworldbatboy1:
eddsworldbatboy1 Featured By Owner Oct 7, 2012  Hobbyist Artist
Plz create Jefferson state
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Sep 13, 2012
shouldn't south califonia be called Media Califonia considering that there is already a Baja Califonia? also what is the state of the moon right now? does the U.S. have lunar states now?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 13, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman never says that outright, but I'd imagine so.
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Sep 14, 2012
Sounds like a good idea for a new map to me.
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:icongoliaths-maps:
Goliaths-Maps Featured By Owner Sep 9, 2012
I have to say, this is exactly what I imagined when I read the next 100 years.
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:iconrajalyoko23:
Rajalyoko23 Featured By Owner Sep 2, 2012  Student General Artist
:noes:
but on the other side, Aztlan sounds so much badass.
:iconwatchoutplz:
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:iconamongthesatanic:
AmongTheSatanic Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012  Hobbyist Artist
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :ohnoes:
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012
Weird. History repeating itself in the future. :noes:
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Until the problem is resolved at its core, history will continue to repeat itself. If we conquered all of Mexico we might have lost the South in an Early Civil War, but it came at the price of another one a few centuries down the road.
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012
You never really know what can happen in 100 years. After all, before World War I, people thought that most Americans would be speaking German due to so many of them moving stateside. ;)
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
I'v seen AHs were the US has gone on to conquer Mexico in stages such as Decades of Darkness but would it actualy be possible for the US to conquer Mexico in one go and if so I imagine that it would be a logistical nightmare since Mexico is quite arid and a population that is more advanced technologicaly then the Amerindian cultures would give greater resistance as well.
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:iconsilferkanto:
silferkanto Featured By Owner Aug 30, 2012
also considering the big size of Mexico. The only way a country to sucessfully go uber imperialist thay have to have a humongous police state.


But diplomaticly is impossible also. latin americans unite together they will always. there are many latin american countries that are anti-USA.
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:iconwarsie:
Warsie Featured By Owner Feb 15, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
Tt the most the US could have annexed Mexico up to around the Tropic of Cancer (in spanish american war) where the population increases, too much more and you dont know what could happen. Maybe you can keep the mexican government weak so the US can slice off states and amerianize them. Or just puppetize/protectorate the rump state and spin off the Mayan regions as another protectorate
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:iconspartanninja141:
SpartanNinja141 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012
I can't wait to see how this plays out. Honestly though, good riddance to those crazy religious republicans in those parts, let them ruin themselves and/or Mexico.
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:icondafreak47:
DaFreak47 Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012  Student Digital Artist
Im a Texan and find this quite offences, especially from someone who writes journals saying "Repost this if you are against bullying and stereotyping".

I am neither a Republican or overly religious
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:iconmuzz12:
Muzz12 Featured By Owner Aug 27, 2012  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
What?
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:iconanycent:
anycent Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012  Hobbyist Writer
VIVE MEXICO VIVE LIBERTY
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012
With the US in control of the Caribbean states and a militarized LEO, it seems that Mexico doesn't stand a chance in hell in the Atlantic theatre. I haven't read the book, but with this in mind, I'm guessing Mexico and Aztlan will be appealing to some powerful Asian states for intervention in the Pacific?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'd imagine it would be almost entirely an air and land war over North America.
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Sep 14, 2012
In which case Mexico and Aztlan are still totally screwed. Think we'll take Baja, rio Grande, and Yucatan this time 'round?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 14, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I really don't know, but I do know that southern whites would be replaced by south-western Hispanics as the whiny citizens bitter about loosing their war to dissolve the Union.
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012  Hobbyist General Artist
Now... I have to say this is intriguing... a second civil war that didn't end up with Texas seceding first! xD
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:iconjax1776:
Jax1776 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2012  Hobbyist Artist
It would've been interesting if it was called the Republic of Arizona instead of Aztlan...
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