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A New World Emerges by YNot1989 A New World Emerges by YNot1989
Houghton Mifflin Social Studies
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Chapter 12: Collapse of Russia and the Eurasian Power Vacuum
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Once one of the most Powerful nations on Earth, Russia ceased to exist at the dawn of the 2020s. With a stagnant economy, a widening gap between Russians and the country's ethnic minorities, and government bankruptcy brought on by years of conflict in the Caucasus, the Union State formally collapsed on November 21st, 2022, resulting in the formal end of the Second Cold War and Russia itself.

For the next two years Russia fragmented as the Caucasus and other Islamic regions seceded from the now defunct Federation, while neighboring powers in Eastern Europe took advantage of the chaos and occupied former territory of the CIS and the Union State, seeking to prevent the return of a historic enemy. By 2025 Estonia had claim over St. Petersburg (Nevaburg), Romania retook Moldova and portions of the Ukraine, Lithuania had annexed Kaliningrad (Vileišisia), and Poland had retaken the territory it had lost to the Soviets at the end of the Second World War, leaving it the most dynamic and powerful nation in Eastern Europe.

The collapsed was all but insured after the Treaty of Anadyr, which established a massive arms Reduction over the Russian federation in exchange for economic aid from the US and the Polish Bloc. This move was largely crafted by President Huntsman and Hungarian President Schmitt in an effort to remove Russia as a single entity for good. The act resulted in rebellions across the whole of the country as a number of Generals and ethnic minorities rebelled against the Moscow government.

Over the next decade Russia continued to degrade, left with no formal government until the establishment of the Russian State in 2031. By that point Russia had been reduced to its Ancient borders and left virtually powerless. Japan and Turkey moved in on the edges of the country to restore order to the most chaotic regions of the country, while the US provided support, but rarely acted beyond limited Naval and Air strikes. For the first time in Modern History, no single power held dominance over Eurasia, leaving the United States free for the first time in its history from any threat of foreign entanglement.

This would not last, as Turkey and Japan, historic allies of the United States, began to act more boldly to ensure regional security. Facing an aging population that left barely half the country able to work, Japan sought influence in China, Mongolia, and Eastern Siberia for exports and labor; eventually launching a military campaign to Pacific Russia in 2033, the first of its kind since 1945, to secure economic interests. Throughout the 2030s Japan progressively worked more independently of the United States, building a large Navy to patrol the North Pacific Basin and funding military technologies to defend its economic lifeblood of Chinese and Siberian laborers.

Turkey, meanwhile expanded its influence in the Arabian peninsula and the Caucasus, seeking to prevent the Chaos Russia left in its wake, from spreading over its boarders, and hoping to build a coalition against the Iranians (the other major power in the region at the time.)

By the end of the decade, the US and the Japanese and Turkish Spheres had begun to enter into a period of formal cordiality, and quiet animosity as the US feared the return of a dominant power in Eurasia.

**This scenario was conceived by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade"
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:iconalagremm:
Alagremm Featured By Owner Jan 20, 2012
As I said in another one of your maps(very well done by the way, good job on the visualization) this is hardly realistic. I honestly think that George Friedman's russophoby is clouding his sences.
Him being a conservative explains a lot too, since from what I had seen he is a follower of American exceptionalism.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Hey, he's saying that you and the rest of the Baltics are going to become part of a new balance of power in Eastern Europe, maybe you guys should be hoping he's right.
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:iconalagremm:
Alagremm Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2012
Well, if he thinks Baltic states can do anything at all, he has no idea what Baltic states are like. To be honest I am amazed that these 3 countries somehow still manage to exist with our governments.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 22, 2012  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well, much like Poland, for the last four centuries you've either been conquered by or made the puppet of some other power. So I suppose I understand your viewpoint.
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:iconkryszak77:
kryszak77 Featured By Owner Oct 13, 2013
Four centuries? In XVII cenutry Poland was the biggest country in Europe, so look back to history books and dont tell shit
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:iconalagremm:
Alagremm Featured By Owner Jan 23, 2012
Well, Poland has a big population, relatively good economy and territories twice the size of the Baltic states, so Im sure they can get powerful.
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:iconcaturday2:
Caturday2 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
I honestly hope this doesn't happen. With Russia unfairly divided and China in turmoil, The US would rule unrivaled. I know you said this guy was conservative, so he probably wants this to happen. Blatant imperialism if you ask me. I'd be the first on the streets protesting if Russia was divided. Either you keep it together, or you divide the US as well. The world doesn't need any more imperialism, the world doesn't need any hyperpowers.
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:iconsupermanfan01:
supermanfan01 Featured By Owner Dec 17, 2013
And what would be so bad about America ruling unrivaled? If you ask me, I'd say it's long overdue for that to happen.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
His conservatism is quite... unusual. He makes it clear that he's genuinely afraid of how the American Empire (which he makes very clear is already a reality and irreversible) is a threat to the Republican experiment; but ultimately he writes as an objective witness to existing US Policy and does his best to explain how it will affect geopolitics down the line. I don't agree with all of his predictions, but I respect his viewpoint as someone who understands and has a respect for power.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
So what this hydrocarbon stuff or whatever that the US is involved with the ultimately plays a roal in the Russian collapse. Is it biooil/algae oil that is grown or reduced dependance on the black gold that is oil ?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman just says the US will, "start deemphasizing hydrocarbons," but he seems pretty sure that people will start moving to electricity.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Ahh, that clears it up a little for me, I really must read his book at some point even if it turns out to be something I won't agree with or like much. I like reading political and historical material as I take in new ideas and knowledge from it even if I don't fully understand it.

At any rate thanks for information. I must say your AH and FH mapswork and senarios are an insperation, I wish I could do work as good and detailed, particularly for my Imperial Timeline (A timeline in which the technological advancement happened at a slower but steady pace but society and civilization have remained largely static or or carrys alot of older values, basicly a world of monarchys and semi-corporate technocracys ect) and Solar Strife Timeline (Multi-way cold war during the colonization of the Sol system but before FTL or the breakout of Sol)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I started out just doing very simple maps in MS Paint for scenarios on althistory.wikia.com, a website I have barely visited in over a year. [link]
That is from my first timelines.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Sep 5, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
I remember reading that TL about 6 to 7 months ago, I quite enjoyed it. Thats impressive work, I had no idea you had created it though (then again I never really bothered to look). I wished the world had taken a turn like it, I may be an optimist but the world is no where near as good as it cloud have turned out after the cold war ended
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:iconkyuzoaoi:
kyuzoaoi Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Student Artist
What about the Philippines? Is it still a US ally?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Sort of. Like almost every country they have trade agreements and whatnot with the US, they just don't have US troops stationed on their soil or have American generals giving members of their military orders. That's what defines a "Major Ally."
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:iconneoteros:
Neoteros Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Nice map... can i post the Cold War maps on AlternateHistory.com under your name? You have some fans in that site, so i think they will jizz themselves seeing these maps... XD
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Sure, as long as they're linked to my DA account that's fine by me.
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:iconthejboy88:
Thejboy88 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011
Good to see Japan rise again.

Nice work.
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:iconlaiqua-lasse:
Laiqua-lasse Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011
"Lithuania had annexed Kaliningrad (Vileišisia)"

Minor nitpick on this one. If you want the region to be named after a surname Vileišis, it would be Vileišija. However, this is highly unlikely to happen, because Kaliningrad has two current names in Lithuanian - Karaliaučius (approximate translation of Konigsberg) and Prūsija (Prussia). One of these two is much more likely to be used instead of some personal glorification :)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Ah, well the region was named after a Russian after they stole it from them after the end of WWII so I thought it was only appropriate for a little historical reflection.
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:iconlaiqua-lasse:
Laiqua-lasse Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011
True :) But I doubt Lithuanians would do something similar, especially in this particular case.
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:iconseebee077:
seebee077 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
This is refreshing since I've seen countless USA break up maps on D/A. This is the first Russia break up map I can recall seeing.
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:iconspartanninja141:
SpartanNinja141 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011
WWIII is going to happen soon.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
2050ish according to Friedman.
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:iconmdc01957:
mdc01957 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011
I guess Friedman still has some beef with the Russians if this is his projection. And also the remilitarized Japanese, apparently.

Nice map, though.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
I can see problems starting to happen because of the Russian population crunch/decline but this is a bit unlikely at least in my eyes. Given how they were in WWII and the methods to used to defeat the Germans I can see Russia giving up a hell of a fight before it ends up like this (them no longer been communist aside). Not criticising ( I hope) just stating what I feel as it may turn out that Russia does break up although I hope it does not, dispite what Russia has done in the past and still does to day not even Russia deserves something like this
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Hey, its not my scenario, I'm just trying to visualize it, criticize all you want.
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:icon33k7:
33k7 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011
I was wondering if you could make the map a bit bigger so I can see the names of the countries and love the story
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:iconenricfan:
Enricfan Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011
I like this map series - the art and style especially :)

I know it's not your scenario, but I would question why on earth would the Baltic countries want anymore Russians under their rule - they have enough problems with them as it is! With maybe the exception of the Lithuanians annexing pesky Kaliningrad. I could also believe Romania annexing Moldova, and Poland wanting some pay back - but a Russia as small as this? Doesn't seem very plausible, or stable, especially since in several of the 'National' Republics that have declared independence from Russia, Russians are the majority. I could see the Russians nuking stuff rather than giving up to this extent....

Thanks for publisizing the idea though :)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Friedman answers that by claiming that it wasn't plausible in 1932 for Russia to be controlling all of Eastern Europe and half of Germany; but it happened because that was the geopolitical reality.

Personally I don't know if he's right, but I don't deny his ability to explain this situation.
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:iconenricfan:
Enricfan Featured By Owner Sep 14, 2011
Maybe it wasn't plausible in 1932, but it was possible - the millions of Russians easily outnumbered the East Europeans. Friedman's theory here asks for a million Estonians to dominate 7 million angry Russians, at least.

Just come across as a bit implausible, but as you say not your theory :)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 14, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Try 7 million scared ex-Russians who'd just like to see some semblance of order again.
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:iconalagremm:
Alagremm Featured By Owner Dec 14, 2011
You have no idea what Russians are like, do you? Somebody invades THEIR country. There is no such thing as an ex-Russian, exceptions being those who left for USA. Russians there would beat the living crap out of every Estonian there and send order to hell, if it order from invaders.
Besides, Estonian army is 100 000 people at best. That against over 7 million, is simply laughable.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Poor mother Russia
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:icontodyo1798:
Todyo1798 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
It's illegal to kill bears without a permit :(
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 3, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well Friedman seems pretty convinced its inevitable, personally I was really hoping that we could have learned to have gotten along, but I'm having a hard time arguing with him as time goes by.
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:icontodyo1798:
Todyo1798 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Yes but today it doesn't make any sense for Russia to go around antagonising the US. Their economy is poor (for a 1st world nation), their population isn't growing, their technology is atleast 10 years behind the wests and if they're not careful they'll become Chinas economic bitch pretty soon. They just don't have anything to gain from pushing off America.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yeah, but remember Russia has NEVER had a good economy, and yet they always seem to find a way to build a large and powerful military. Their demographic problems will drive them to seek some form of territorial security (that's always been Russia's problem they have no natural land borders on the Eastern European Plain). As for their tech, they've been making some interesting moves with Germany lately that might remedy that problem. And according to Friedman, and I share this opinion in the short term, China won't be an economic titan for much longer, their own demographic problems, political instability, and real estate crisis is gonna lead to some major problems for that country. By pushing back against the US Russia will be trying to gain regional peace of mind; it will be an attempt to resolve a problem that almost every war Russia has been involved with has been about: How can Russia have territorial security so long as they have no natural borders to the North?

But again, his argument, not mine. Personally I think the Russians would be better off getting more involved with NATO as an observer state or maybe even a full partner.
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:icontodyo1798:
Todyo1798 Featured By Owner Sep 4, 2011  Hobbyist General Artist
Yes I agree with your idea there, it is better for Russia to become more involved with the west, thus negating the need for a natural land border. If they are at peace with their neighbours, then they can allow their population size to increase and it's economy to develop at it's own pace. If they aren't obsessed with a war economy then they could easily become rather welathy thanks to their abundancy of natural resources.
Hell, as a member of NATO they could very well become the "big brother" nation for the Baltic members and increase their influence over Belarus and Ukraine significantly. Yes this will lead to some tension with Poland and maybe even Germany, but as NATOs influence decreases and the EU stagnates it's not like there will be anyone other than America to do anything about them. And with Russia an Anerican ally, I don't think they will. The Heartland-Rimland geopolitical theory is pretty clear that with Russia on their side, along with Europe, Japan and the few parts of the Middle East that still side with them, America dominates Eurasia, and therefore the world.
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