Houghton Mifflin Social Studies
Chapter 12: Collapse of Russia and the Eurasian Power Vacuum
Once one of the most Powerful nations on Earth, Russia ceased to exist at the dawn of the 2020s. With a stagnant economy, a widening gap between Russians and the country's ethnic minorities, and government bankruptcy brought on by years of conflict in the Caucasus, the Union State formally collapsed on November 21st, 2022, resulting in the formal end of the Second Cold War
and Russia itself.
For the next two years Russia fragmented as the Caucasus and other Islamic regions seceded from the now defunct Federation, while neighboring powers in Eastern Europe took advantage of the chaos and occupied former territory of the CIS and the Union State, seeking to prevent the return of a historic enemy. By 2025 Estonia had claim over St. Petersburg (Nevaburg), Romania retook Moldova and portions of the Ukraine, Lithuania had annexed Kaliningrad (Vileišisia), and Poland had retaken the territory it had lost to the Soviets at the end of the Second World War, leaving it the most dynamic and powerful nation in Eastern Europe.
The collapsed was all but insured after the Treaty of Anadyr, which established a massive arms Reduction over the Russian federation in exchange for economic aid from the US and the Polish Bloc. This move was largely crafted by President Huntsman and Hungarian President Schmitt in an effort to remove Russia as a single entity for good. The act resulted in rebellions across the whole of the country as a number of Generals and ethnic minorities rebelled against the Moscow government.
Over the next decade Russia continued to degrade, left with no formal government until the establishment of the Russian State in 2031. By that point Russia had been reduced to its Ancient borders and left virtually powerless. Japan and Turkey moved in on the edges of the country to restore order to the most chaotic regions of the country, while the US provided support, but rarely acted beyond limited Naval and Air strikes. For the first time in Modern History, no single power held dominance over Eurasia, leaving the United States free for the first time in its history from any threat of foreign entanglement.
This would not last, as Turkey and Japan, historic allies of the United States, began to act more boldly to ensure regional security. Facing an aging population that left barely half the country able to work, Japan sought influence in China, Mongolia, and Eastern Siberia for exports and labor; eventually launching a military campaign to Pacific Russia in 2033, the first of its kind since 1945, to secure economic interests. Throughout the 2030s Japan progressively worked more independently of the United States, building a large Navy to patrol the North Pacific Basin and funding military technologies to defend its economic lifeblood of Chinese and Siberian laborers.
Turkey, meanwhile expanded its influence in the Arabian peninsula and the Caucasus, seeking to prevent the Chaos Russia left in its wake, from spreading over its boarders, and hoping to build a coalition against the Iranians (the other major power in the region at the time.)
By the end of the decade, the US and the Japanese and Turkish Spheres had begun to enter into a period of formal cordiality, and quiet animosity as the US feared the return of a dominant power in Eurasia.
**This scenario was conceived by STRATFOR founder, and geopolitical/economic analyst George Friedman. I did my best to illustrate his very interesting scenario which you can read about in great detail in his books: "The Next 100 Years," and the "Next Decade"