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2132: Dusk by YNot1989 2132: Dusk by YNot1989

History repeats itself, until the underlying problem is resolved. For the 22nd Century, it seemed Earth was entering a new age of chaos and hardship. The empires of the United States and Mexico had clashed a dozen times through proxies in the last 20 years alone, destabilizing much of Eurasia and Africa. Brazil and Poland, once tacid observers to America and Mexico’s conflict, have been drawn into it as direct actors. Brazil began siding more and more with the US after the wars for East Africa almost ended with the loss of the Uganda Tower, and the Civil War in China threatened to spill into Macau. To counter any potential US-Brazil entente in the Western Hemisphere, Mexico and its Latin American allies directly invaded Brazil in 2129, citing a desire to restore order after a series of riots broke out in Brasilia; riots engineered by Mexico. The Latin American states put down the riots, and then propped up a puppet government that quickly signed a non-aggression pact with Mexico. The Latin American states established satellite states in Southern Brazil, annexed neighboring territory, and now had access to the wealth of the Amazon. The Mexican strategy of destabilization by supporting popular uprisings and regionalist groups were partly intended to build alliances for Mexico, but mainly to distract the US around the world with costly wars just to hold onto partners they’d already won. With Brazil out of the picture, and America already busy with with civil wars in India and China, the US didn’t have time to aid a potential ally in South America. Mexico had proven itself to be a major player over the last 50 years, and had shown that the US wasn’t invulnerable. A number of powers closed ranks around Mexico, partly to spare themselves of any further destabilizing conflicts, but also due to a prevailing belief that Mexico would be the dominant power in the 22nd Century.

In the US, as with the rest of the Earth, the economic stagnation of the last 50 years had finally reached a tipping point by the late 2120s, with markets propped up by the reforms of the 2080s finally collapsing under their own weight. With the demand for goods unable to be met, fear of insurrection returned to the US. Mexicanos Libres party members began calling for autonomous status of the bankrupt Southwestern states, a prospect supported by Vice President David Castillo. The Second Martian Revolution, attempted to declare independence from the United States, but was quelled by ITC Chairman Lionell “Leo” Halvidar, one of the surviving first colonists of Mars. Following the Second Revolution, Halvidar announced his candidacy for the US Presidency, traveling to Earth to campaign directly to the American people on Terra. Halvidar, running on the new Union Party ticket, advocated for the US (and by extension all of Earth) to adopt the Quantum Economic Model, grant full integration of the colonies into the Union, and a undertake a phased population relocation of citizens and prospective citizens to the soon-to-be-habitable colonies on Venus. Halvidar, a former Terran, resonated with many disenfranchised people on Earth, and many of his speeches and appearances were viewed en masse around the Earth, and across the system. Colonials contacted and urged relatives on Earth to support Halvidar, while Mexican nationals, still furious over the deportations of the 2080s urged the people of the Southwest to stop Halvidar at all costs. The Mexicanos Libres party directly engaged Halvidar and the Union party more than any single group. The MLP was staunchly anti-colony, arguing that the inclusion of the colonies would drastically tip the balance of political power off-Earth, and leave the Mexican-Americans ignored and disenfranchised even more. Mexico, who supported the MLP,  considered the colonies to be the single greatest threat to their future. So long as the American's access to space based resources is limited, and Mexican control of the Hispanosphere ensures a real chance of unseating the Americans as the dominant force on Earth, but if the Americans ever formally integrate the colonies into the Union, Mexico would be dwarfed by the US in terms of economy and population. It was for these reasons that the MLP received more money from Mexico in 2132 than during any other election, even supporting Conservative Party candidates to chip away at the Union-Progress coalition. On Election Day, 2132, Lionel Halvidar won 37.5% of the vote, and was the second choice of another 17.5% of voters, winning him a narrow victory, and resulting in the secession of four Southwestern states.

Ironically, Mexico did not anticipate this outcome, despite engineering similar events around the world. A Second Civil War in America would inevitably lead to a far worse war between the US and Mexico. With this in mind, Mexico sought to keep the conflict contained by building up its forces along the border and making regular contacts with the Americans, pledging non-intervention. Meanwhile, Mexican proxies ramped up their war efforts in Eurasia and Africa to keep American hands from finding Mexico's throat. Militant elements inside Mexico, had already begun to fund these separatists, and distribute nationalist propaganda across Mexico and the Latin American allies. Opposition to the moderate government under President 
Deandre Garcia, began to increase, as her administration continued to support an indirect approach to combat the Americans. Garcia's own generals began to oppose her, supporting a more direct approach against the Americans. One such general in the Mexican orbitals began running bombardment drills, and war games with his colleagues on Earth, without the President's permission. Despite what the leadership may want, Mexico seems ready to march to war.

In the colonies, the remnants of the revolutionaries broke up almost overnight at the promise of integration by one of their own, while colonial leaders prepared for what they feared most. The Planetary Guards of the colonies began running war games, while Venus Working Group did everything they could to accelerate the planet's declaration of habitability. Colonial organizations began moving to fund similar projects on Earth that had unified the colonies, beginning with teaching tours by colonial experts on post-scarcity quantum economics. The colonies may be getting ahead of themselves though; with civil war all but declared, and the Union Party with just barely a majority in Congress, integration will be a hard fought battle, but it may be the only one that can save Earth from an apocalyptic war.

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microwavedreams Featured By Owner 3 days ago
So besides the US, Mexico, Brazil and Poland, are there any other minor or rising powers? Countries more dynamic than others? Vague potential challengers if you were to continue the timeline through the entirety of the 22nd century? 
YNot1989 Featured By Owner 3 days ago  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Argentina is the other pole of Mexico's grand alliance, and they were quite pissed that they were not permitted to claim the rest of the Rio de la Plata after they essentially conquered it for Mexico's interests. If Mexico were to win, Argentina would eventually try to challenge them. The Congo and Uganda on their own are minor powers that benefit greatly from US interests, but should the Americans loose they would be natural allies and would quickly become the richest bloc in Africa. No one fucks with the Ural Federation, but they don't really have any way to grow.
gatemonger Featured By Owner Sep 29, 2014
Do you think a contemporary(2014) power like the BRICS could use the anti-hegemonic strategy you have depicted in this TL against our US' global order? If not, why not?
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 29, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No. If you combined the economies of the BRICs, the US Economy would still be more than 2 trillion USD less than that of the US. That's ignoring the complete lack of a Blue Water Navy by any of these powers (save for Russia on a good day). In order to counter the US in this regard Mexico (or rather its Alliance system) had to reach parity with the US. This means they had to be at least 80% as powerful as the United States. As of 2132 Mexico has the Earth's second largest economy, a large navy and space force, and a united populous. China has an economy that they built in less than 30 years and is already starting to crumble, has a Navy that can't do much beyond defend their own waters, and has several very large border regions that hate Beijing's guts. Russia is very similar, Brazil is still too poor, and India see China.
gatemonger Featured By Owner Sep 29, 2014
So no mass destabilization in the Little Cold War. Hmph. I was expecting at least you'd say those would appear. lol
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 30, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
There were attempts, but no where near as successful as Mexico's.
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner Sep 15, 2014
Wait, Israel is an ally of Mexico?
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 18, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Atamolos Featured By Owner Aug 31, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
1: How are colonies governed at this point, and which countries have them (besides the US)?

2: What is the capitol of Brazil now that São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are independent?

3: Why are the US and Mexico getting bogged down with proxies in Arabia. Isn't oil made obsolete by helium-3 and electric cars at this point?

4: How has the Naxalite movement in India lasted this long? They're declining even now in OTL, so was the movement recently revived or had it been holding out in an increasingly advanced India for over a century?

5: With so many countries presumably under proxy dictatorships, which nations in Africa and Eurasia are viable democracies right now?

6: How many countries have access to nuclear weapons at this time?

7: Why are the Outer and Inner Mongolias separate nations?

8: Is Hejaz a Muslim equivalent to the Vatican? And speaking of which, what all has happened to the Vatican by now?

Sorry for so many questions. :P
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 1, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
1.) As of 2132 the colonies are officially governed under the territorial system the US has used since the Northwest Territories, unofficially they are governed by an NGO known as the Interplanetary Trade Commission, originally set up to manage the flow of resources around the system and take over the management of Martian real-estate markets, but it now serves as the closest thing to a representative government the colonies have. Chariman Halvidar, however, upon being elected to the Presidency back on Earth, has promised to finally bring the colonies in as states (there are hundreds of colonial territories eligible for statehood on Mars alone).

2.) Brazil's capital is Brasilia, just as it is today.

3.) Oil's obsolete, but trade routes and the Suez canal are still important.

4.) The Nazalites of the 22nd Century have very little in common with their Maoist ancestors. They're more like state capitalists these days, and use the name purely to give them some semblance of legitimacy.

5.) Most of these countries are governed by Presidential or Semi-Presidential systems with representative legislatures that would be viable... except that the majority of the countries these states claim to represent are pretty indifferent to the new governments. The Nordics, France, and Poland are all viable democracies (though the Polish bloc does have some real problems with local oligarchs), The states surrounding the new African megalakes are actually fairly democratic states, as is Iran believe it or not.

6.) No one really knows for sure. Between the collapse of Turkey and Russia there are countless nukes in the possession of random states, but most of them are useless as anything other than strategic mines given the advances in nuclear countermeasure technology. Just about any state has the technology to build a bomb, but only a few bother to do it.

7.) Inner Mongolia and Outer Mongolia occasionally talk about unification, but between Mexican, American and what remains of Chinese influence, the cogs just never seem to come together.

8.) Hejaz is the Muslim equivalent to the Vatican (in that it exists mostly for religious pilgrims, and is therefore under limited threat of being attacked by anyone nearby), and the Vatican itself remains the head of the Catholic Church, but has since been absorbed into Italy. These days the Catholics aren't nearly as large as they were at their peak in the early 21st Century, but a number of reformist popes have managed to stop the decline in membership.
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