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July 8
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2132: Dusk by YNot1989 2132: Dusk by YNot1989

History repeats itself, until the underlying problem is resolved. For the 22nd Century, it seemed Earth was entering a new age of chaos and hardship. The empires of the United States and Mexico had clashed a dozen times through proxies in the last 20 years alone, destabilizing much of Eurasia and Africa. Brazil and Poland, once tacid observers to America and Mexico’s conflict, have been drawn into it as direct actors. Brazil began siding more and more with the US after the wars for East Africa almost ended with the loss of the Uganda Tower, and the Civil War in China threatened to spill into Macau. To counter any potential US-Brazil entente in the Western Hemisphere, Mexico and its Latin American allies directly invaded Brazil in 2129, citing a desire to restore order after a series of riots broke out in Brasilia; riots engineered by Mexico. The Latin American states put down the riots, and then propped up a puppet government that quickly signed a non-aggression pact with Mexico. The Latin American states established satellite states in Southern Brazil, annexed neighboring territory, and now had access to the wealth of the Amazon. The Mexican strategy of destabilization by supporting popular uprisings and regionalist groups were partly intended to build alliances for Mexico, but mainly to distract the US around the world with costly wars just to hold onto partners they’d already won. With Brazil out of the picture, and America already busy with with civil wars in India and China, the US didn’t have time to aid a potential ally in South America. Mexico had proven itself to be a major player over the last 50 years, and had shown that the US wasn’t invulnerable. A number of powers closed ranks around Mexico, partly to spare themselves of any further destabilizing conflicts, but also due to a prevailing belief that Mexico would be the dominant power in the 22nd Century.

In the US, as with the rest of the Earth, the economic stagnation of the last 50 years had finally reached a tipping point by the late 2120s, with markets propped up by the reforms of the 2080s finally collapsing under their own weight. With the demand for goods unable to be met, fear of insurrection returned to the US. Mexicanos Libres party members began calling for autonomous status of the bankrupt Southwestern states, a prospect supported by Vice President David Castillo. The Second Martian Revolution, attempted to declare independence from the United States, but was quelled by ITC Chairman Lionell “Leo” Halvidar, one of the surviving first colonists of Mars. Following the Second Revolution, Halvidar announced his candidacy for the US Presidency, traveling to Earth to campaign directly to the American people on Terra. Halvidar, running on the new Union Party ticket, advocated for the US (and by extension all of Earth) to adopt the Quantum Economic Model, grant full integration of the colonies into the Union, and a undertake a phased population relocation of citizens and prospective citizens to the soon-to-be-habitable colonies on Venus. Halvidar, a former Terran, resonated with many disenfranchised people on Earth, and many of his speeches and appearances were viewed en masse around the Earth, and across the system. Colonials contacted and urged relatives on Earth to support Halvidar, while Mexican nationals, still furious over the deportations of the 2080s urged the people of the Southwest to stop Halvidar at all costs. The Mexicanos Libres party directly engaged Halvidar and the Union party more than any single group. The MLP was staunchly anti-colony, arguing that the inclusion of the colonies would drastically tip the balance of political power off-Earth, and leave the Mexican-Americans ignored and disenfranchised even more. Mexico, who supported the MLP,  considered the colonies to be the single greatest threat to their future. So long as the American's access to space based resources is limited, and Mexican control of the Hispanosphere ensures a real chance of unseating the Americans as the dominant force on Earth, but if the Americans ever formally integrate the colonies into the Union, Mexico would be dwarfed by the US in terms of economy and population. It was for these reasons that the MLP received more money from Mexico in 2132 than during any other election, even supporting Conservative Party candidates to chip away at the Union-Progress coalition. On Election Day, 2132, Lionel Halvidar won 37.5% of the vote, and was the second choice of another 17.5% of voters, winning him a narrow victory, and resulting in the secession of four Southwestern states.

Ironically, Mexico did not anticipate this outcome, despite engineering similar events around the world. A Second Civil War in America would inevitably lead to a far worse war between the US and Mexico. With this in mind, Mexico sought to keep the conflict contained by building up its forces along the border and making regular contacts with the Americans, pledging non-intervention. Meanwhile, Mexican proxies ramped up their war efforts in Eurasia and Africa to keep American hands from finding Mexico's throat. Militant elements inside Mexico, had already begun to fund these separatists, and distribute nationalist propaganda across Mexico and the Latin American allies. Opposition to the moderate government under President 
Deandre Garcia, began to increase, as her administration continued to support an indirect approach to combat the Americans. Garcia's own generals began to oppose her, supporting a more direct approach against the Americans. One such general in the Mexican orbitals began running bombardment drills, and war games with his colleagues on Earth, without the President's permission. Despite what the leadership may want, Mexico seems ready to march to war.

In the colonies, the remnants of the revolutionaries broke up almost overnight at the promise of integration by one of their own, while colonial leaders prepared for what they feared most. The Planetary Guards of the colonies began running war games, while Venus Working Group did everything they could to accelerate the planet's declaration of habitability. Colonial organizations began moving to fund similar projects on Earth that had unified the colonies, beginning with teaching tours by colonial experts on post-scarcity quantum economics. The colonies may be getting ahead of themselves though; with civil war all but declared, and the Union Party with just barely a majority in Congress, integration will be a hard fought battle, but it may be the only one that can save Earth from an apocalyptic war.

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RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner 1 day ago
So Quebec, Japan, and South Africa are Free Association states?
YNot1989 Featured By Owner 12 hours ago  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, but damn close to it.
TheTexasRanger Featured By Owner Edited 4 days ago
Will China and India reunite after the war cuz it seems like the US is going to win after what happened at the battle of DC
YNot1989 Featured By Owner 4 days ago  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Sorry, spoilers.
menapia Featured By Owner 5 days ago
v interesting storyline but what is the quantum economic model or is that just the next big "thing" in the future?
YNot1989 Featured By Owner 5 days ago  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Quantum Economic Model is how the colonies are able to implement a post scarcity economic system. China was hoping to adapt elements of it to manage their own economy (for them it would mean nationalizing their existing resources and essentially signing away a lot of sovereignty to the colonies to build the infrastructure that would allow China to best utilize the resources coming off the New Guinea elevator.
menapia Featured By Owner 3 days ago
Nice bit of world building then especially when you covered how robots would cause unemployment etc
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2014
So besides the US, Mexico, Brazil and Poland, are there any other minor or rising powers? Countries more dynamic than others? Vague potential challengers if you were to continue the timeline through the entirety of the 22nd century? 
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Argentina is the other pole of Mexico's grand alliance, and they were quite pissed that they were not permitted to claim the rest of the Rio de la Plata after they essentially conquered it for Mexico's interests. If Mexico were to win, Argentina would eventually try to challenge them. The Congo and Uganda on their own are minor powers that benefit greatly from US interests, but should the Americans loose they would be natural allies and would quickly become the richest bloc in Africa. No one fucks with the Ural Federation, but they don't really have any way to grow.
gatemonger Featured By Owner Sep 29, 2014
Do you think a contemporary(2014) power like the BRICS could use the anti-hegemonic strategy you have depicted in this TL against our US' global order? If not, why not?
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