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2051: The Brink of War by YNot1989 2051: The Brink of War by YNot1989
Climate Change started the Third World War. Perhaps that's a gross oversimplification, but its the popular consensus of those who lived through that age. The world had just gotten used to the new coastlines with the loss of the South Greenland Ice Sheet, but in 2039 to 2041 the already tense geopolitical conditions were through into overdrive with the loss of Antarctica's coast-lying ice sheets, driving sea levels up to just under 30 meters above Pre-Anthropocene levels. All but a handful of the Earth's greatest cities were lost beneath the waves, and only the hearts of once great megalopolises survived. Billions of people were displaced, driving border protection policies by some countries while others aggressively tried to take advantage of potential additions to the workforce. Some of these people desperately tried to flee for the new off-Earth colonies, but Mars quickly reached pre-terraforming capacity, while the outer planets could barely handle a few million more citizens. Most were left on Earth to flee where they could. The most dramatic instances of this second wave of refugees/immigration to the developed world were seen in the low-lying countries that had already contributed substantially to the immigration boom in coastal Russia and North America. The newcomer was the former United Kingdom; with the storm of 2043, London and many major British cities were left underwater, with little hope of reversing the damage. With Australia's drought leaving the land virtually uninhabitable, and few other options available to them, a great British migration to the Americas occurred in late 2043 thorough much of the decade. With the Atlantic seaboard flooded, most settled in the American heartland like many refugees had for the the last decade. Those that did not settle in the United States made it to Newfoundland, and the newly independent first nations in the Arctic Circle to capitalize on the demand for skilled labor in the petroleum industry. Newfoundland went so far as to achieve independence from Canada proper in 2048, taking advantage of geographic isolation via Quebec. What remained of the United Kingdom quickly fractured. Scotland formalized its independence in 2044, Ireland reunified after the British military pulled out of Ulster to secure the British mainland, but to secure Britain itself the United States positioned 10,000 military and humanitarian operators in the former UK. By 2045 the British Parliament dissolved the monarchy to take direct control of its remaining lands to secure population interests, and the Republic of Britain became little more than an American protectorate. On the mainland Germany and France found themselves in a similar position with the Dutch and Belgians who had lost the majority of their nations to the Sea, and formally annexed these territories in 2049.

In the Pacific, facing a demographic disaster from an aging population and the loss of Tokyo to the Sea despite an immense government effort to construct a robust sea wall network, Japan began more aggressive campaigns into Pacific Russia, China and South East Asia to secure territory for its displaced population, which flooded by the millions into the Pacific Russian territories and Manchuria. Securing their economic and social claims meant a Naval buildup that conflicted directly with US naval interests, and despite formally cordial relations, the Japanese invested heavily into the construction of satellite tracking and ship destroying missile bases in the South Pacific. By middle of the 2040s Japan stood as America's chief rival in Earth Orbit and on the Moon, stationing civilian and military facilities at in Earth Orbit the Lagrange points and on the far side of the moon (though in this area they American presence will still dwarf that of Japan.) Turkey, facing much less loss of territory to the Sea, but rather a need for arable land from a dryer equator formalized its presence in the Caucasus with annexation, and a more aggressive presence in Southern Russia and the Ukraine to secure the Don and Volga grain belt. War along the Turkish axis defined the late 30s and much of the 40s as Turkey faced resistance groups to its power and conventional conflicts to secure its interests, culminating in the the Friday Revolution in Egypt, where Turkey deployed peacekeepers to secure regional interests following the flooding of Cairo, and effectively took control of the Suez Straight. With a position in Egypt, Turkey pushed its sphere west into North Africa, becoming the decisive power in Western Eurasia. Israel, already on friendly terms with the Turks and seeking an accommodation with the growing power, and Turkey not wanting to  enter into a conflict with the small, but powerful enclave, entered into a mutual non-aggression pact in 2040. Control of the Suez Straight meant control over Arabia, despite endless conflict with Arab insurgents, and presented itself as a major threat to Iranian interests. As the dominant power over the oil and Natural Gas of Southern Russia to the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey found itself as a natural Ally of the Japanese, and established a formal Alliance in 2043, the Eurasian Trade and Security Coalition. While Formal alliances of this type were unusual in this age, the necessity of the global climate and refugee crisis drove these two powers to formalize their interests to secure mutual interests against the rising tide and against American interests. This event forced the United States to realize the new reality in Eurasia, as Turkey and Japan posed a credible risk to uniting the continent under a single power (though not a single state). With an economic depression in the Arab region, Turkey positioned itself as a neo-Islamist power, gathering support from pan-Turkics and Islamic fundamentalists. Facing mutual threats on two fronts, the United States increased support to India and China dramatically, going so far as to support Chinese nationalists over American and Taiwanese puppet regimes in Southern China for the sake of regional cohesion. By 2045, Poland, supported in the US effort to counter the Turks, brought Slovenia and Croatia into the Visegrad Group, despite a limited Turkish Presence in Former Bosnia. The Eurozone watched this developing crisis intensely, playing a game of wait and see, but finding itself on increasingly more amicable terms with the Turks, not wanting to see a United power on their Eastern Border again, and Germany once again made into a battlefield. At this juncture Germany began to a quiet effort to aid the Turks in every way short of war with Poland, by imposing greater influence on Danish and Croatian business interests to prevent Polish access to the Atlantic and therefore the United States.

The Americans pursued an extremely effective policy of containment against this new Coalition, arming the Poles, Chinese, Indians, and Koreans against the Turks and the Japanese, a policy that in turn drove the Japanese and Turks to increase their military readiness, and so on, driving the planet to war. With a halt in American trade of high tech goods to prevent any technology transfer, Japan and Turkey were left believing a full blockade could be next. With America supporting nationalists efforts in Arabia, Egypt, Russia, and the Ukraine, the Turks were convinced that war would be the next inevitable act by the Americans to cripple them. As such, war plans by the Turks and Japanese began to take shape. 

The key American military threat no longer lied at Sea, but in Space. Since the Space Boom began in the late 2010s the United States had been quietly increasing its military presence in Earth Orbit and on the Moon, protective of valuable energy, mining, and manufacturing operations on Near Earth Asteroids and the lunar surface. During the 2030s the United States reached out to several contractors it had worked with on the commercial mining of lunar Helium-3 to develop increased infrastructure for commercial and eventually military ventures. Gradually the US abandoned the costly and ineffective policy of deploying overburdened infantrymen and petroleum burning vehicles to far corners of the planet to exert its power, to a system of rapid response, force projection technologies that could operate from mobile sea-based platforms and from US Soil directly. These systems still required a global command system, however and to that end the US began the construction of an extensive network of command and control satellites, all managed by three geostationary positioned Orbital Command Stations. Built in secret at the Tycho Shipyards on the moon, the Orbital Command Stations networked with unmanned spy satellites, refueling and repair facilities and orbital bombardment stations. No longer relying on vulnerable land based command centers, the United States could project its power with minimum effort and superb accuracy. Primary command and control moved to the Orbital Command Stations to limit the number of failure points, with space based systems seeming invulnerable to smaller powers. OCS Eisenhower was stationed over Uganda, OCS Kennedy over Papua New Guinea, and the main command station, OCS Reagan was stationed over Ecuador. These stations constituted the primary threat to the Turks and Japanese. Commanding fleets of hypersonic unmanned aircraft and coordinating Naval support around the planet, the Orbital Command Stations could impose devastating blockades on the Turks and Japanese. By 2050 war plans were well underway, and Japan new that to secure its regional interests it had to destroy the American command structure in space, and prevent any future launches by capturing the American manufacturing and military installations on the Moon. As the Japanese prepare for their attack, the Turks stage a crisis in the Balkans, pushing the Poles to the absolute edge of war, even allowing facilities in the Caucasus to be attacked by Polish drones. While the Geneva peace conference is being mediated by the Americans, Japan prepares to strike, hoping the Americans would rather accept a world with three great empires than risk its own empire in another World War.
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:icontheone1super:
theone1super Featured By Owner Jul 12, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
have you read "The Next 100 Years"? cuz i see a moment of WW3 similarities
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 12, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yes I have.
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:icontheone1super:
theone1super Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
i was wondering, if you want me to make some flags, i might be able to make them!
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I make plenty on my own, but if you want to create some of  your own I'd be happy to add them to the wiki.
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:icontheone1super:
theone1super Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
which wiki? (ive been looking for it)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
future.wikia.com under "the Second Renaissance"

future.wikia.com/wiki/Scenario…
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:icontheone1super:
theone1super Featured By Owner Jul 13, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
thx
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:iconepileptictrees:
epileptictrees Featured By Owner Oct 17, 2014
So this took place in an alternate history where Japan never really demilitarised and reduced into nothing more than an American protectorate?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 17, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, this is purely future history/speculative history. Japan has remilitarized (as they are currently in the process of doing with the Blessings of the US to form a more effective counter to China). Also remember, that Japan never really demiliterized, they have the second largest Navy in the Pacific and a very large Army (both of which are formally National Guard/Coast Guard like entities). They have a serious demographic problem, expounded by a cultural problem (old people, and xenophobia respectively) that will necessitate expanding their economic assets to border regions. They'll have to protect those regions, and that means expanding their military.
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:iconepileptictrees:
epileptictrees Featured By Owner Oct 23, 2014
JAPANESE CONSTITUTION, ARTICLE 9. "Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. To accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized."
 
So unless they have avoided the disaster of WW2, the Japanese have been metaphorically castrated. Hence my description of modern Japan as nothing more than an American protectorate.
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:iconse-roger:
SE-Roger Featured By Owner May 25, 2015  New Deviant Hobbyist Digital Artist
dude, the world went to s!@# overnight, i don't think anyone was careing when they were able to do something cheeply.
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:iconrogueleader1000:
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner Feb 3, 2015
Actually, the Japanese government is already talking about getting rid of that clause entirely and simply reforming their military. Constitutions can be amended you know.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 23, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yeah, that's not gonna last. The Japanese went from having no industrial capacity to being the dominant power in Asia in less than 50 years. If they decide that taking a more active role in their region benefits their country more than being a US protectorate (spoilers, it is) they'll militarize. Also, prose means very little to me, and politics means even less, so don't show me the line of prose from their constitution that will most likely stay in effect decades after they've built up their Navy and Air Force and are planning on sending troops into Northern China to secure their interests.
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:iconlouisthefox:
LouisTheFox Featured By Owner Jul 8, 2014  Hobbyist General Artist
Very unlikely for that to happen to Canada, this actually I know will lead to a full annexation of Canada into the US which is something I hate seeing on and future or alt history maps. I'm just being honest here.
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:iconrogueleader1000:
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner May 17, 2014
I assume the  Orbital Command Stations are located at the end of Orbital Elevators?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner May 17, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, they're in a higher orbit actually.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Lastly, why are there Turkish allies in northeast Asia?  That's preposterous.  The Japanese wouldn't like it and the Turks couldn't support those allies.  I understand their desire to surround Siberia if it were allied with the U.S., but that's impractical.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Turkish Nationalism/Pan-Turkism is a growing movement today, and I imagine that the Turks will use this in securing an alliance with the predominantly Turkic Sakha/Yakutia. The alliance is convenient because it allows the Japanese to secure their holdings in the former Russian Far East, without having to risk a costly occupation of a neighboring territory, while the Turks provide security and economic development to feed the industrial demand for raw materials of the Japanese.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Also, you need to redraw the borders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgistan.  The Fergana Valley will unify in some way, somehow when Russian power collapses although you have liberty to draw the borders however you like because I don't know enough to guess at how things will unfold.  Needless to say, expect Uzbekistan to become two countries, its geography has two distinct population centers and cultures.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
See my maps that are further down this timeline.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Lastly, while the Iranians will be rooting for the Americans to win the war they will only jump in at the end once its clear Turkey will lose, and they want a spot at the table when peace is made.  They should be considered neutral at the time the war begins.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
You've said lastly twice, if you just like reading your own words then please just write your own timeline, because you are just quibbling over minutia at this point.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014
Sorry about my English, I kept realizing new things that caught my attention, and I don't consider it "minutia."  I consider your work to be the best I've ever found on the internet as far as projecting future developments, and I'm trying to offer constructive criticism because I think your work is so good.  I would never have taken so much time to analyze the "minutia" if your work wasn't so impressive.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Lastly, expect Bulgaria to be pro-Turkish, there's strong historic precedence for this, and they are less threatened by Russia's resurgence than Romania or Poland, and have nothing to gain and everything to lose from the Polish Bloc pushing into Russia.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I imagine they would not formalize such an arrangement at the start of the war due to the heavy presence of American and Polish material in the Balkans. They wouldn't choose sides until after the Turks push north into Poland.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
And I expect Kenya and Uganda at least to be one country by this time: they're economies are complementary, and the East African Economic Community is laying the framework for this.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Eh, they've been trying for a while, but an East African Federation isn't formed until the late 2050s in this timeline, and its largely because of an American investment in space elevator infrastructure to fuel its next generation Orbital Defense System.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Sorry, I just looked at Africa.  Expect Nigeria to fragment by this time with its exploding population (500million people in an area the size of Texas), and Somaliland should be independent.  It has a strong national identity forged in war, and continuing chaos in the horn of Africa should id its aspirations to become independent.  Somalia and Somaliland will likely take different sides between the Turks and the Americans two with this war offering both a prime chance to strike a blow against the other.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Look at my other maps.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014


Some criticisms:

1. I believe far more of Latin America will offer token support to the United States.  For example, Brazil sending a few thousand soldiers to fight would help to reassure the U.S. about its expanding presence in the South Atlantic, and cost very little in their eyes.  Columbia will of course side with the U.S.  It's geopolitical imperative is to ally with whatever power controls the Panama Canal, and Argentina will ally with the U.S. as it will have been a tacit U.S. ally since the 2030s.  It will send a few troops as metaphorical "payment" for free trade agreements and technical and military support which the u.s. will have been giving it for more than a decade as a way of constraining Brazil.  

2. Why do you expect Italy to split into two?  I don't see that happening: regionalism is strong there, but their unemployment rate is still only at 12%.  A general rule for calculating the political effect unemployment has on a country is the "rule of three."  That means for every unemployed person three people are affected (generally, a spouse and two kids).  That means that 50% of Italy is affected by its unemployment.  That's high, but not as extreme as Greece or Spain's.  The capital inflows of the Po River valley would likely be funneled South through social welfare programs to keep the country together, and I would expect Italy to give basing support to the U.S. and potentially Poland, but not engage in war b/c it won't want to fight a major war, and Turkey will grudgingly not attack it because it won't want to face Italian power (which won't be great, but will be regionally relevant like England's, despite its population decline problem which is even more extreme than Germany's), in addition to the Polish Bloc.

3. I expect the Indonesian central government will be allied with the U.S. while Japan destabilizes the country by pitting ethnic factions on different islands against Jakarta.  It will be neutral in the war, internally distracted, but will be rooting for a U.S. victory.  Southeast Asia will also want to see a U.S. victory, but stay neutral until its clear the Americans will win because they will fear Japanese power projection in Asia.  Japan won't need to invade them as they did in World War Two because they will have the resources of Russian Siberia.

4. Any and all Canadian states will ally with the U.S.  None will want the U.S. to favor one faction over another after the war.  I don't think Canada will split, but if it did, all those states would have to be pro-American as they would all be hugely dependent on the U.S. economically, and militarily fearful of the U.S. supporting other Canadian factions.

, but overall, very very well done.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 5, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
1. The United States is trying to counter Brazil's growing influence in the South Atlantic by supporting Argentina, so they aren't really allies; Columbia and the US have had a falling out as the Turks try to cause friction in South America to divert American attention to their space Elevator in Ecuador.

2. Italy's break up is the result of a combination of regionalism, economic disparity as Northern Italy benefits more from being tied to the European core than Southern Italy, and a more intense economic collapse due to poor preparation for rising sea levels. 

3. Indonesia's CURRENT government would be allied with the US, but the regime in power by 2051 was installed by the Turks and the Japanese to secure the Straight of Malacca (this is the same reason the Japanese invaded in WWII, and its the reason they will install puppet regimes and business interests to take them over in WWIII) using the very tactics you refer to. 

4. The First Nations are divided amongst each other and Canada enough that the US does not feel the need to invest resources to secure an alliance with them, and the First Nations themselves are as impulsive and prideful as is typical with young dynamic countries, so they do not see an alliance with the US as an inherent benefit.
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:iconprorumble:
prorumble Featured By Owner Jan 24, 2014
РУССКИЕ НЕ СДАЮТСЯ!!! 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 24, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, but when you're not trying to conquer Eurasia, your political system does a fine job of destroying itself. Its only a matter of time before it takes all of Russia with it.

And if that translator app is worth a damn this should make sense: Нет, но если вы не пытается покорить Евразии, вашей политической системы не штрафом задание уничтожить себя. Его лишь вопрос времени, прежде чем оно принимает все России.
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:iconmplithid:
mplithid Featured By Owner Feb 4, 2014
Don't try to use translator apps for non-Western languages.  The grammar structure is too different.  I know this from learning Chinese, and Russian grammar is far more different from English grammar than Chinese is.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013
Did any conflict from World War 3 take place on Mars or any other non Earth/Lunar parts of the solar system?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well, the Coalition sponsored a couple of anti-terraforming radical groups on Mars, but outside of Earth-Luna, the war wasn't really ever a factor of daily life.
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Oct 29, 2013
So, the Japanese probably aren't off the hook for this one until at least 2300... I'm curious, what were the death tolls for the prewar Turkic and Japanese expansions? Knowing what we do here, I'm guessing rather high.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 29, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Pretty low actually. It was economic expansion to start, then military and political aid to neighboring powers, then military advisers, then bases in neighboring states, then outright annexation of the Caucasus which most of the region (save Georgia and Armenia) were more than happy to have. Georgia is a police state, but Armenia is, while not genocided, ethnically cleansed in a sense via forced relocation programs. Japan had forced relocation programs after the loss of the south polar caps, but it was fairly localized and mostly bloodless.
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:iconrajalyoko23:
Rajalyoko23 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Student General Artist
Is this part of the Second Renaissance TL?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yep. The revised version.
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist
Something tells me that this war is not going to be fought in the way that we understand wars today. I'd think the loss of life might just well be minimal given how technology must have developed at this point.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Less than 100,000 casualties, very few will be civilian. Unmanned systems will be attacking economic and military installations, while manned systems are basically the Nanosuit soldiers from Crysis taken to the next level.
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist
Not a bad image on the soldiers, even though I personally dislike the Nanosuit :P
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well its the most likely direction for improving strength, speed, information gathering, and protection of a solider, just take away the nebulus alien crap and replace it with cybernetic brain augmentation so that one soldier can command a legion of land and air drones. Think future Knights rather than special ops agents.
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:icondeltax10:
Deltax10 Featured By Owner Oct 31, 2013

so... adaptes astartes? or something else like that?

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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 31, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Think Spartans + Ghost in the Shell Cyborgrs
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:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist
Aw crap! That's... infinitely more terrifying :O
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:iconrandaglar:
Randaglar Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013
Your Chita state not inqlude sity of Chita?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Pretty sure it does, barely.
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:icontwiggierjet:
Twiggierjet Featured By Owner Oct 27, 2013
Really interesting. The ending kind of sounds like it was inspired by the book The next 100 years. 
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