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2035: The Rising Tide (New) by YNot1989 2035: The Rising Tide (New) by YNot1989
The collapse of Russia, the Labor Shortage, the Flood; these are the great events that shaped the first half of the 21st Century. With the end of the Little Cold War in 2023, the Eurasian Union, and ultimately the Russian Federation ceased to exist, fragmenting across ancient cultures long since forgotten by the world until that point. The Tartars, the Don Cossacks, and the Yakuts all found themselves independent for the first time in centuries, while former Russian Army units attempted to carve out their own kingdoms inside their former country. Endless efforts to secure former Russian nuclear arms from upstart powers like the Samara Republic would become a defining crises of the 2020s, and NATO forces would be engaged in a series of brush-fire wars in former Russian states for the next 15 years. The chaos also gave rise to poachers all along the Russian periphery; the Finns retook their long lost Karelian territories in a peaceful union, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania occupied much of the territory they lost to the Soviets at the end of WWII, and the Baltic States, who bore the brunt of the responsibility for securing St. Petersburg would eventually come to annex the increasingly fuzzy borders between their lands and the city. In many ways Russia's descent into chaos merely punctuated a story of that had been unfolding in Eurasia since the Great Recession. The European Union had been picked apart by rising nationalism, left to a core of Eurozone countries, and a significantly weakened free trade zone. Germany, once the mighty engine of Europe, finally slumped into a depression after the free trade zone that their economy depended died a death of a thousand cuts. The center of gravity in Europe, has shifted to the East.

While Russia fragmented, China's economic troubles over the last ten years finally came to fruition in the Market Crash of 2027. While China had officially been in a state of recession for more than nine years, the Crash of 2027 made deep demographic problems in the Chinese, and ultimately the world economy apparent. With the loss of the south Greenland Ice Sheet in 2025, and the subsequent rise in global sea levels by 7 meters, China found themselves facing open revolt across their country, a revolt that cost them the territories on their western peripheries and made their northern border porous to foreign influence. To prevent the collapse of the world's third largest economy, the US, intervened directly, pumping over a trillion dollars into the Chinese economy and deploying US Naval detachments to provide relief to refugee flooded cities like Hangzhou. China's collapse also spelled the end for a number of Cold War era institutions like the World Bank, which was never able to secure any significant capital from cash strapped European powers, who were dealing with their own refugee crisis in the low countries. This is often seen as the direct precursor for the eventual dissolution of the United Nations, as American interests in China conflicted with those of Japan, a country desperate for labor to supplement its demographic crisis of an aging population and a xenophobic culture.

As the developing world's coastal cities drowned, across the globe, only the wealthiest cities managed to save themselves from falling beneath the waves by hastily constructed sea walls. Tokyo, Washington DC, New York, and London all found themselves fighting to survive against the seven meter rise in global sea levels. CO2 production had finally stymied by the 2030s with the Electric Vehicle revolution, but the demand for energy put ever greater strain on the global economy, even with Helium-3 shipments from Luna and new improvements in Solar energy. All of this was ultimately secondary in the global zeitgeist when compared to the Population Crisis that drove the Recession of 2027. The sitting administration made several attempts to save the global economy with economic theories left over from the Reagan and Obama administrations, but to no success. This led to the election of Dylan James Price to the Presidency. President Price pushed for an aggressive immigration incentive program to attract skilled immigrants to the US and close the labor gap met by an aging population and increased global demand for high tech goods and services. This is where a silver lining to the rising tide became apparent; as more urban centers found themselves underwater, the displaced populations could fill the labor shortage in the developed world, taking advantage of the new immigration incentives, none more aggressive than those of the United States and Canada (though with the first people's more aggressive calls for independence, Canada was still far behind the US in incentives). Millions of Burmese, Thai, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Chinese, Indian, and Bengali immigrants flooded into North America as their home countries drowned, driving the United States population to 400 million citizens.

While the United States took an incentive approach to solving its demographic problem, the Turks and Japanese took a more direct approach. With the fall of Russia, and China in such a weakened state, the Japanese and Turks took more aggressive military action to secure their regional interests, and export industry to surrounding territories to supplement their population problems. Turkey was aided by ancient cultural ties to neighboring states and a grateful US, who had been supporting their more active role in the Middle East since their invasion of Syria in 2016, while Japan exploited the power vacuum in the North Pacific to secure national interests. The US had moved beyond direct engagement in all but the most serious of crises, and now preferred to lean on regional players like Poland, Turkey, Iran, India, and Japan to maintain the balance of power in their respective corners of the world. This doctrine emerged during the Little Cold War and the War with the Islamic State, and in the 2030s it had become the standard practice of the United States. It was in these years that the seeds for a new global conflict were sewn.

<-World: 2051

<-Asia: 2044

<-Europe: 2044

<-Mars: 2037
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Apr 15, 2017
I was wondering what was the story of Quebec's secession?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 20, 2017  Hobbyist Digital Artist
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Apr 20, 2017
What's their relationship like with Canada in the present?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 20, 2017  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Amicable.
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Edited Mar 30, 2017
Would you say that Scotland becoming an independent nation was the result of the renewed demand for an independence referendum happening today?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 30, 2017  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yup.
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Mar 30, 2017
Same.
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:iconscornedsiren:
ScornedSiren Featured By Owner Jan 21, 2017
Dang dude, this is really neat work, and I do want to ask you of your tools of the trade, what'd you use to make this basically?  I'm asking because I wanna do something like this, not for any intellectual purpose, but for fun and games.  Usually, I'm on Photoshop CC and Paint.Net
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jan 21, 2017  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I use GIMP and generally a combination of terrain and political maps to create borders and climate conditions.
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:icona-cynical-idealist:
A-Cynical-Idealist Featured By Owner Dec 28, 2016
How exactly did the American annexation of the Caribbean unfold? Was it the result of a military intervention during the flood or was it done by a more subtle means? Furthermore, I find it hard to believe the U.S. would annex the entire Caribbean. Cuba is easy to understand: Cuba straddles an incredibly strategic waterway, has a healthy demography, cheap labor, and annexation would carry heavy political clout in the Latin world. Too many other annexations and the House and Senate would be flooded with minority congressmen and I'm sure there's sufficient white male angst in Washington to block such a thing for the foreseeable future. Your thoughts?

Peter Zeihan has predicted that Argentina, and not Brazil, is the longer-term success story in Latin America for two reasons. Firstly, their geography is similar to that of the United States (militarily secure, lots of navigable rivers, plenty of fantastic arable land) whereas Brazil has no navigable rivers, lots of highlands, and highly acidic soil in some areas. Secondarily, in a world where things like international law and globalized cosmopolitanism are going down the drain (as you both seem to be predicting), the Argentine government has experience with corruption and the shadow economy and thus is less dependent on the international system than Brazil is. Your thoughts with respect to this timeline?

How grueling is the implosion of the EU in this timeline? And do you see any foreseeable end to the South European depression? If so, when do you think this would come about? Friedman's thoughts are hardly optimistic when it comes to Greece and Spain.

The North European balance of power has historically shifted around ganging up against whichever power is most prominent in the area (see HRE, Napoleon, Imperial Germany, Soviet Union, etc). Currently, Russia is still that enemy even though they are in steep decline, but Germany has made no secret of their interest in Russian gas and cheap labor, while the Russians want German investors and technology. Poland is the natural counterweight here, but how do you see this Russo-German entente affecting the Franco-German alliance that has been the hallmark of European peace since 1945?

Poland is clearly the rising power in conflict with Russia here, but how and when exactly does Poland manage to legitimize its conquests in Western Ukraine and Belarus in this timeline? Furthermore, why would the Baltics bother annexing Russian territory on their borders? That would only strengthen the pro-Russian lobby that's undoubtably been causing trouble for them during the Little Cold War and cause more trouble for them in the long run both domestically and abroad.

West Africa seems to have gone a little wonky with the borders. What with nations just kinda gobbling up their neighbors (in particular Senegal, Guinea, and Liberia). Is this a result of the flood or did you just think it looked better on the map? Also, I don't see Nigeria as particularly willing or able to expand its already unstable Northeast territory into Cameroon, which is also an incredibly diverse country. Nigeria is barely managing its own internal ethnic balance of power without having even more ethnic tensions thrown in by annexing a bunch of territory.

How have Somalia, South Sudan, and Congo coalesced in this TL? Are they coherent states by 2035 or is it still a mess of corruption and militias?
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:iconshernod9704:
Shernod9704 Featured By Owner Nov 22, 2016
The Little cold war?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 28, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The current frozen conflict between the US and Russia, largely exemplified by the crisis over Ukraine.
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:iconshernod9704:
Shernod9704 Featured By Owner Nov 28, 2016
But thats my future history event.
The little cold war (or the Micro-Cold War,Cold war two) was a minor but big standoff between three sides with different beliefs. United States, the micronation of Shermania and the other micronation of Shrekenstein.
(Big story)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 29, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well, tough, because the term was coined a few years back: www.stratfor.com/weekly/ukrain…
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:iconshernod9704:
Shernod9704 Featured By Owner Nov 29, 2016
Ok
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Nov 18, 2016
So what started the Chinese recession?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 20, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Nov 21, 2016
It does. Thanks a lot.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Nov 9, 2016
Are you still certain Russia will even collapse at all? why?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 9, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
How does Donald Trump's election change the balance of power in Eurasia?
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Nov 9, 2016
I don't know, I'm just curious as to exactly why Russia will break up. It's a pretty bold prediction is all and Russia's population decline has reversed in recent years.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 12, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Russian Federation's population decline has reversed, but Russia's hasn't. The bulk of the population growth is coming from ethno-religious enclaves of non-Russians. Additionally, Russia has begun to tap into their cash reserves to make up for the loss in revenue from oil exports. The result being that by 2018-2019, they'll be so broke they won't be able to pay their military or any incentives to keep their Republics from looking elsewhere for help. 
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Dec 30, 2016
Plus add all the sanctions in place, and that might speed it up to 2017.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Nov 12, 2016
ah
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Oct 21, 2016
So apparently, Filipino president Durtete has announced his country's "separation" from the US. What's your take on it in regards to this? Do you think it plays a role in the resurgence of Japan?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 21, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Eh, possibly, if the US leans on Japan to deal with it. I think it has much more to do with the global tide of nationalism, and if I had to venture a guess as to how it will end I'd be willing to bet in a military coup.
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Oct 22, 2016
Yeah that's what I picture happening, as the Philippines is the most pro-Us state in the world
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:iconsinadelendaest:
SinaDelendaEst Featured By Owner Feb 17, 2017
Duterte is a historical outlier. I think this brief flirtation with China and anti-Americanism is a blip that will last only until the end of his term, if not earlier. When the next president comes in it'll be back to being buddy-buddy with the US.

Duterte's "separation" from the US at a time when the Philippines needs US help to deal with China is idiotic, but eh. His supporters aren't very rational, and many support him for other reasons, they just conveniently overlook his anti-Americanism.

It's also possible that Duterte is just playing hard to get to secure more concessions from the US, or attempting to pit the US and China against each other and benefit from both. I still don't agree with that kind of policy, but it's better than the alternative, which is that he is kowtowing to China completely.
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Oct 10, 2016
I know perfectly well what happened to the British isles and Canada in the years before the annexation act of 2073, but could you please tell me the story revolving around Australia and New Zealand? The reason being is because I intend to create a page on the wiki about the annexation act.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 12, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Nov 12, 2016
That's perfect! Thank you so much. And I just want you to know that I intend to keep working with you on this timeline, to ensure this future becomes a reality.
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:iconxlander684:
xlander684 Featured By Owner Oct 10, 2016
I don't feel that Quebec would split from Canada
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:iconred-the-mink:
Red-The-Mink Featured By Owner Oct 7, 2016  Hobbyist General Artist
I imagine Canada as a republic at this point.
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:iconxlander684:
xlander684 Featured By Owner Sep 24, 2016
This is an awesome and quite plausible scenario, but I don't understand is how the Caspian Sea could expand so much?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 25, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
There only thing dividing the Don and Volga rivers is a relatively short gap in a shared valley. It flooded and drained into the Caspian.
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:icontaidrem:
Taidrem Featured By Owner Sep 29, 2016  Professional Artist
this is the most stupid theory, the Caspian Sea on the contrary dry and Tsimlyansk reservoir can not flood all then it would be flooded Rostov-on-Don
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:iconxlander684:
xlander684 Featured By Owner Sep 25, 2016
That makes sense, thanks!
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:iconel-jorro:
El-Jorro Featured By Owner Sep 13, 2016
A plausible future if their ever was one!
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:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Sep 13, 2016
I just want to say that this is the future I now believe in
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:iconcopyninjy:
copyninjy Featured By Owner Edited Sep 7, 2016
Why not divide the US for once? ;)
I don't insist on this though.
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Sep 6, 2016
I see Tibet is finally free of China. As it should be.
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:iconsinadelendaest:
SinaDelendaEst Featured By Owner Feb 17, 2017
Indeed.
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:iconpraetorfenix1994:
praetorfenix1994 Featured By Owner Sep 7, 2016
There's less than 10 million of them, against a billion Han Chinese, in a region with abundant natural resources that the Chinese economy needs, all while being important to the territorial integrity of China itself. The "should" aspect doesn't really matter, but if the Tibetans can gain a brief respite or greater sovereignty from a brief period of Chinese weakness, good for them. But expecting long term Tibetan independence is ridiculous.
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:iconsinadelendaest:
SinaDelendaEst Featured By Owner Feb 17, 2017
Some territory or other being "important to the territorial integrity of 'insert country here'" is a poor excuse for imperialism.
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:iconpraetorfenix1994:
praetorfenix1994 Featured By Owner Feb 27, 2017
It's been used quite successfully as an excuse for hundreds of years.
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:iconsinadelendaest:
SinaDelendaEst Featured By Owner Feb 28, 2017
LMAO, I guess it's a good excuse for imperialism then. The phrase "important to the the territorial integrity of so-and-so country" is so vague as to be essentially meaningless, which makes it a good excuse.
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:iconcivplayer:
CivPlayer Featured By Owner Sep 6, 2016
I'm kinda curious to know to what degree the political alignments on this map (i.e. spheres of influence and the like) have changed much from its previous incarnation, or can we assume that the alliance structure carried on into this retcon?  Actually as a corollary, I'm kinda curious as to how much the U.S. led alliance structure exists formally as opposed to informally.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 6, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yes, the alliances are basically the same, and yes, they're more informal than formal as of 2035.
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:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Sep 6, 2016
So what are the closest formal allies of the US at this point--and for the rest of the Second Renaissance? 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 9, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The closest are still Canada, Taiwan, Korea, and the UK. Poland, Japan and Turkey are, on paper anyway, as close to the US, but they have a lot more autonomy and don't always do things the US likes. But the US would rather they be strong regional powers with a little independence (doesn't last, I know) as opposed to weak powers utterly dependent on the US.
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