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2035: The Rising Tide by YNot1989 2035: The Rising Tide by YNot1989
The collapse of Russia, the Labor Shortage, Climate Change. These are the great events that shaped the Blakanization in the first half of the 21st Century. With the end of the Little Cold War in 2023, the Eurasian Union, and ultimately Russia (the Union State) ceased to exist, fragmenting across ancient cultures long since forgotten by the world until that point. The Tartars, the Don Cossacks, and the Yakuts all found themselves independent for the first time in centuries, while the Finns retook their long lost Karelian territories, while the Visegrad Gruop poached numerous territories from Western Russia. Any semblance of order has taken a decade to emerge, made no easier by an endless effort to secure former Russian nuclear arms from upstart powers like the Samara Republic.

While Russia fragmented, China's economic troubles over the last ten years finally came to fruition in the Market Crash of 2027. While China had officially been in a state of recession for more than nine years, the Crash of 2027 made deep demographic problems in the Chinese, and ultimately the world economy apparent. With the loss of the south Greenland Ice Sheet in 2025, and the subsequent rise in global sea levels by 7 meters, China found themselves facing open revolt in much of the country, a revolt that cost them the territories on their western peripheries and made their northern border porous to foreign influence. To prevent the collapse of the world's third largest economy, the US, intervened directly, pumping over a trillion dollars into the Chinese economy and deploying US Naval detachments to provide relief to refugee flooded cities like Hangzhou. China's collapse also spelled the end for a number of Cold War era institutions like the World Bank, which was never able to secure any significant capital from cash strapped European powers, who were dealing with their own refugee crisis in the low countries. This is often seen as the direct precursor for the eventual dissolution of the United Nations, as American interests in China conflicted with those of Japan, a country desperate for labor to supplement its demographic crisis of an aging population and a xenophobic culture.

As the developing world's coastal cities drowned, across the globe, only the wealthiest cities managed to save themselves from falling beneath the waves by hastily constructed sea walls. Tokyo, Washington DC, New York, and London all found themselves fighting to survive against the seven meter rise in global sea levels. CO2 production had finally stymied by the 2030s with the Electric Vehicle revolution, but the demand for energy put ever greater strain on the global economy, even with Helium-3 shipments from Luna and new improvements in Solar energy. All of this was ultimately secondary in the global zeitgeist when compared to the Population Crisis that drove the Recession of 2027. The election of 2028 saw a new administration that made several attempts to save the global economy with economic theories left over from the Reagan and Obama administrations, but to no success. This led to the election of Dylan James Price to the Presidency. President Price pushed for an aggressive immigration incentive program to attract skilled immigrants to the US to close the labor gap met by an aging population and increased global demand for high tech goods and services. This is where a silver lining to the rising tide became apparent; as more urban centers found themselves underwater, the displaced populations could fill the labor shortage in the developed world, taking advantage of the new immigration incentives, none more aggressive than those of the United States and Canada (though with the first people's more aggressive calls for independence, Canada was still far behind the US in incentives). Millions of Burmese, Thai, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Chinese, Indian, and Bengali immigrants flooded into North America as their home countries drowned, driving the United States population to 400 million citizens.

While the United States took an incentive approach to solving its demographic problem, the Turks and Japanese took a more direct approach. With the fall of Russia, and China in such a weakened state, the Japanese and Turks took more aggressive military action to secure their regional interests, and export industry to surrounding territories to supplement their population problems. Turkey was aided by ancient ethnic ties to neighboring states and a grateful US, who supported their effort to stabilize the Middle East, while Japan exploited the power vacuum in Eastern Pacific Rim to secure national interests. It was in these years that the seeds for a new global conflict were sewn.
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:iconamonre-89:
Amonre-89 Featured By Owner Edited 1 day ago
I like the idea, showed pretty well. I have some doubts with Polish gains in Ukraine, but that's not much.

Nevertheless! I have a question regarding the flood, as I suppose no one has even noticed it. Where did the huge amount of water in Caspian Sea (Lake) come from, as it was able to cover depression and surrounding flatlands?

Considering scientific theories about basin's creation, this region was separated from the ocean due to tectonics, closing the connection with Black Sea, and since then it was sourced with water mostly by rivers (and poor rains). Local rivers don't fully compensate water shortage, also bringing extra mud and sand. This is most probably how the Caspian depression formed in the first place.

Summing up, I think the Caspian, Aral and other "big" waters in region should rather tend to evaporate, unless they find a rich source of water to reverse the trend... But where did you get such water reservoir?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner 1 day ago  Hobbyist Digital Artist
That's just what I've seen on all other maps depicting rising sea levels, but I think its the result of flood water from the Black Sea draining into the Volga and Don rivers.
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:icontakagawa-shuoist:
Takagawa-Shuoist Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2015
Excuse me, I am an amateurish player and find so many exellent map like this on your website, could you tell me which software you used to realize them? Thank you very much~
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 14, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
GIMP
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:icontakagawa-shuoist:
Takagawa-Shuoist Featured By Owner Feb 15, 2015
soga!
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:iconnealman11:
NealMan11 Featured By Owner Sep 7, 2014
I feel like Austria, Switzerland, and other middle European countries as well as Norway or Sweden would be in the Eurozone and that Finland wouldn't be part of the Visengrad group but you probably contemplated this for hours while I wrote this in 5 minutes so you're probably right
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:iconlonn7:
lonn7 Featured By Owner Jun 10, 2014
So, what exactly happens in Bosnia?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jun 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Poland and Turkey are all mucking around in there to gain access to the Adriatic. So they supported what groups they had to and a couple of brushfire wars later and you're left with no Bosnia.
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:iconrogueleader1000:
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner May 1, 2014
looks like the British are in terrible shape in this scenario. They've lost all their overseas territories. And America annexed French Polynesia, Cuba, and Hispaniola...interesting.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 28, 2014
What in your opinion is the greatest threat to American hegemony at present in the world?  
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 28, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Short term: Russia
Long term: Mexico
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014
So do you feel that Americas shift to the Pacific is unnecessary?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, not at all. In the Pacific we have many regional powers that will no doubt try to start trouble, and there will be other short term players trying to challenge the US there, but I was simply trying to narrow the list down a bit. Let me expand my beliefs on challengers to American power.

China: China's days as a challenger are numbered, 20 years of unchecked growth was never sustainable, and the government is fortunately smart enough to know when to put on the brakes. They're gonna spend the next decade in a controlled decline, trying to keep the nation together by creating a more stable system that won't result in the same cycles of collapse that China has known for the last five thousand years. They'll never surpass the US because of this, but they'll be able to keep China together... for a time anyway.

Russia: Russia is the immediate threat. They have the territory, the resources, the military, and the will to challenge the US in Europe and West Asia, but they can't realistically do much beyond their immediate periphery. They will try and craft an alliance structure to create distractions for the US, and by the tail end of the decade their military will be on par with that of the US... though their Navy won't be anywhere close to the size of that of the US. But, as a long term threat, Russia can't support a large conventional military without putting extra strain on an already weak economy, and climate change will hurt their natural gas supplies where it counts; they'll collapse by the early 2020s.

Japan and Turkey: After Russia falls to pieces, Japan and Turkey will fill the power vacuum in Eurasia, at first pressured to do so by the US to maintain order, and later out of necessity due to a combination of aging populations and a land crunch for Japan. They'll form a natural alliance against the US, as it tries to assert control over increasingly independent powers, and that will eventually lead to War. The US will win, mostly because the Japanese and Turks won't be able to fight the US to defeat, they'll want a political settlement, and the US isn't exactly known for seeing nuance in warfare.

Mexico: Mexico will be a top tier economy by century's end, easily in the running for second place to the US. But Mexico's greatest advantage will be its culture. While the culture of the United States will permeate every society, Mexico will have millions of people of common ancestry living in homogenized groups in the American Southwest. These people will no doubt start distinguishing themselves from the rest of the country, which will be a much more pluralist society, with very different values, religions, and language. This will lead to at least one war, but I see it as more of a Rome vs. Carthage problem with multiple conflicts across decades, rather than one power putting down an upstart. 
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014
Thank you for the long response! This is exactly the answer I was looking for, especially with regards to the big picture.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Mar 8, 2014
Why did Italy split?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 8, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
As climate change got worse what was left of the EU started allocating money to try and save Atlantic Europe from flooding, and Southern Italy, already fed up with the rest of Europe's economic woes, broke away.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Mar 9, 2014
Makes sense. Also, i noticed that in your older 2nd Renaissance timeline the flood ended up being the thing that unified Europe into a single entity. What changed your mind?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'm now of the opinion that humans would rather selfishly covet their own lives and treasure rather than risk them to help other humans when there is no apparent benefit to them.
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:iconjrlc66:
jrlc66 Featured By Owner Feb 14, 2014
you need to look at the volume of the ocean have dropping the floor ocean 1000 5000 feet 12 years earthquakes volcano it start year 1983 the hawaii 
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:icondaniocean:
DaniOcean Featured By Owner Feb 12, 2014
I can see that you always put Bulgaria as either unaffiliated or in the wrong alliance(sphere). I wonder, is this due to your lack of knowledge on the region, or is it due to you actually think it will take such positions?

Since I hail from there, I can tell you that the nation will choose the wrong side in the Little Cold War and then it will split up, both due to internal political divisions, long-cultivated prejudice toward some minorities(Gypsy and Turkish) and the fact that the US will like to split it between the Turks and the Poles. The North, which have better historic ties with Poland will join the Visegrad Group, while the South(populated by Turks and Gypsies self-identifying as Turks) will seek to form it's own nation and along with some major bulgarian business interests will secede and join the Turkish sphere.

P.S. For those wondering, Bulgaria is at the Northern European border of Turkey.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 12, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Interesting insight, but I usually just ignore Bulgaria because its in the Balkans, and I could claim just about anything happens down there and it wouldn't matter.
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:icondaniocean:
DaniOcean Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014
Yup, this is generally true, but I think in this case it is relevant, due to Turkey and their confrontation with the Visegrad Group(btw, I love this name), during WWIII. Well if nothing else it will contribute to the realistic quality of the map.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Not my name. Its real.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013
So this isn't a timeline specific question, but what are your views on Friedman's perception of China not being a major player? While he's gotten a lot right, other things and problems slated to happen for the country just...haven't happened. How would a timeline for the next 10 years of China look like for you?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I think Friedman's projection of China "Receding," in some form is right on the money, and I think that if climate change doesn't hit them too hard they might be able to pull a Japan and stabilize.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013
What did you use to determine the nations that would emerge from a balkanized Russia?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I looked up Russia's semi-autonomous and autonomous republics, oblasts, etc. referenced those against actual geography, and then added in regions of economic interest that would form out of necessity rather than ethnolinquistic convenience.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013
What do you use as sources for the projections for African boundaries in your maps, as Friedman's two most recent books gloss over the continent almost entirely?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 21, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
This isn't directly Friedman's, true much of it is based on Friedman's, but I've simply come to agree with Friedman on a number of points, but taking into consideration the effects of climate change and space exploration.
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:iconzifker:
Zifker Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013
What's the South Atlantic Union's story?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Brazil has slowly begun to emerge as a major regional power and is expanding its influence into Africa to secure a degree of autonomy from the United States.
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:iconugiel:
ugiel Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013  Hobbyist Writer
It looks as though you were inspired by "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman. Am I right or is is just a hap?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
To an extent. I think his model is fairly accurate, I just think he's really underestimating Climate Change and Space Travel's impact in the 21st Century.
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:icongigoxxiii:
GigoXXIII Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013  Hobbyist General Artist

Nice work as always, and nice work on this beautiful looking map.

 

Was Quebec a peaceful separation via vote, uprising or US mediated ?

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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Quebec was a peaceful separation, but not one either side was that happy about. The Native population is essentially an autonomous state, and was the real driving force behind Separation from Canada. That will be a bigger point in future maps.
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:iconmtt3008:
MTT3008 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013

So I guess, that the EU as we know it collapsed. How are the relationships between the various power-blocs in Europe, like the Eurozone and the Visegrad-group?

 

And if France would be part of the Eurozone, why is French Guyana not part of it?

 

How did Italy split up?

 

What happened to the various nuclear bombs spread over former Russia? Are now all those new nations that formed out of old Russia armed with nukes?

 

How was Korea united?

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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
French Guyana is now only freely associated with France, and technically independent. 

Italy split in the 2020s in what ended up being a mutually agreed upon split like Czechoslovakia, as Northern Italy benefited disproportionately more by remaining in the Eurozone.

The US, Visegrad Mutual Security Force, and the British successfully removed/destroyed the lion's share of nuclear weapons from the former Russian Federation, while the Japanese and Americans removed weapons from Kamchatka. Several hundred bombs remain with the Russian rump state, and only Siberia, the Samara and Ural Republics are nuclear armed, and led by former military leaders from the Russian Federation. Samara is the new North Korea of the era, led by a military dictator, while the Ural Republic is a fairly reasonable power that operates similar to Egypt or Pakistan with a military backed civilian government. The Siberians are the ones that are actually the most dangerous, however, because they are just a loose confederation of oil producing towns with no real central authority, so no one is sure how secure Siberia's weapon's stockpiles are.

Korea united when China's economy went belly up in the early 2020s, leaving North Korea high and dry. Within a matter of weeks the country was facing an economic collapse that left millions to starve (more so than now anyway), and the Kim regime was eventually deposed by the military leadership who brokered a phased reunification plan with South Korea. South Korean businesses could set up shop in North Korea, but travel between the two regions would be reserved to direct family members, humanitarian aide, and those with work visas. The North Korean military submitted directly to South Korean authority, but was slowly cut back (a process that abruptly stopped when Japan started moving troops into the Chita republic to secure their interests). As for North Korea's nuclear arsenal, it was quietly decommissioned, while their facilities were upgraded and made usable for more advanced nuclear devices to deter Japan (which had a similar program in production.)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The Eurozone sees the Visegrad group as the Soviet Union/Union State in just another form, and frequently votes to condemn it at meetings in Brussels. The Visegrad Group sees the rest of Europe as an economic basket case, and would rather just not worry about it.
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:iconpytko3:
pytko3 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013
Glad to see Quebec gained it's independence.Clap 
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:iconscarfield:
Scarfield Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013
1) What is the story behind the separation in Southern Africa?
2) I know that most of your scenarios is based on the US and Iran becoming more friendly, but why doesn't Arabia then seek other allies?  
3) How are relations in the Balkan ( There has to be some REALLY angry people in the Balkans in this setting!)
4) Any particular reason why Norway is not part of the Ameican Sphere?

As always a superb map!
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
1.) The Union state funded a number of nationalist groups in the Congo which the US needed for natural resources.
2.) Arabia is a remnant of former oil powers thay have since collapsed.
3.) The balkans are moving support to the Turks.
4.) Norway is just neutral.
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:iconcanuleyo:
canuleyo Featured By Owner Oct 18, 2013
Nice map, but ideologically I dislike it.
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:iconquantumbranching:
QuantumBranching Featured By Owner Oct 18, 2013
Yakutia, Siberia, Chukotea...you're planning to make a Risk-world, aren't you? :) A most excellent map.

Not sure how conquering areas with very few inhabitants is going to help Japan with its demographic issues. 
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Exporting Industry, and they aren't conquering these areas just yet, just pushing economic interests on them.
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:iconquantumbranching:
QuantumBranching Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013
If you mean they're doing this to make up for the labor shortage at home, again, there's not a lot of people there...and why can't they just export industry to Indonesia or something without actually conquering, like everyone else?

(Sorry I'm being so nitpicky: it really is a lovely big map)
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 21, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
They do, but Chita and Kamchatka are in the Japanese sphere for their energy industry more than anything (Chita is home to a few million Chinese nationals too.)
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Oct 18, 2013
Your hiatus was clearly productive and well worth it.
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:iconsapiento:
Sapiento Featured By Owner Oct 18, 2013  Professional Digital Artist
Fine map. I think you forgot the label for Croatia.
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:icongranddukeofsomething:
A very minor question, but do you think that Kalingrad would've been given back to Germany?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 19, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Its absorbed by Poland.
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