While Russia fragmented, China's economic troubles over the last ten years finally came to fruition in the Market Crash of 2027. While China had officially been in a state of recession for more than nine years, the Crash of 2027 made deep demographic problems in the Chinese, and ultimately the world economy apparent. With the loss of the south Greenland Ice Sheet in 2025, and the subsequent rise in global sea levels by 7 meters, China found themselves facing open revolt in much of the country, a revolt that cost them the territories on their western peripheries and made their northern border porous to foreign influence. To prevent the collapse of the world's third largest economy, the US, intervened directly, pumping over a trillion dollars into the Chinese economy and deploying US Naval detachments to provide relief to refugee flooded cities like Hangzhou. China's collapse also spelled the end for a number of Cold War era institutions like the World Bank, which was never able to secure any significant capital from cash strapped European powers, who were dealing with their own refugee crisis in the low countries. This is often seen as the direct precursor for the eventual dissolution of the United Nations, as American interests in China conflicted with those of Japan, a country desperate for labor to supplement its demographic crisis of an aging population and a xenophobic culture.
As the developing world's coastal cities drowned, across the globe, only the wealthiest cities managed to save themselves from falling beneath the waves by hastily constructed sea walls. Tokyo, Washington DC, New York, and London all found themselves fighting to survive against the seven meter rise in global sea levels. CO2 production had finally stymied by the 2030s with the Electric Vehicle revolution, but the demand for energy put ever greater strain on the global economy, even with Helium-3 shipments from Luna and new improvements in Solar energy. All of this was ultimately secondary in the global zeitgeist when compared to the Population Crisis that drove the Recession of 2027. The election of 2028 saw a new administration that made several attempts to save the global economy with economic theories left over from the Reagan and Obama administrations, but to no success. This led to the election of Dylan James Price to the Presidency. President Price pushed for an aggressive immigration incentive program to attract skilled immigrants to the US to close the labor gap met by an aging population and increased global demand for high tech goods and services. This is where a silver lining to the rising tide became apparent; as more urban centers found themselves underwater, the displaced populations could fill the labor shortage in the developed world, taking advantage of the new immigration incentives, none more aggressive than those of the United States and Canada (though with the first people's more aggressive calls for independence, Canada was still far behind the US in incentives). Millions of Burmese, Thai, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Chinese, Indian, and Bengali immigrants flooded into North America as their home countries drowned, driving the United States population to 400 million citizens.
While the United States took an incentive approach to solving its demographic problem, the Turks and Japanese took a more direct approach. With the fall of Russia, and China in such a weakened state, the Japanese and Turks took more aggressive military action to secure their regional interests, and export industry to surrounding territories to supplement their population problems. Turkey was aided by ancient ethnic ties to neighboring states and a grateful US, who supported their effort to stabilize the Middle East, while Japan exploited the power vacuum in Eastern Pacific Rim to secure national interests. It was in these years that the seeds for a new global conflict were sewn.
Long term: Mexico
China: China's days as a challenger are numbered, 20 years of unchecked growth was never sustainable, and the government is fortunately smart enough to know when to put on the brakes. They're gonna spend the next decade in a controlled decline, trying to keep the nation together by creating a more stable system that won't result in the same cycles of collapse that China has known for the last five thousand years. They'll never surpass the US because of this, but they'll be able to keep China together... for a time anyway.
Russia: Russia is the immediate threat. They have the territory, the resources, the military, and the will to challenge the US in Europe and West Asia, but they can't realistically do much beyond their immediate periphery. They will try and craft an alliance structure to create distractions for the US, and by the tail end of the decade their military will be on par with that of the US... though their Navy won't be anywhere close to the size of that of the US. But, as a long term threat, Russia can't support a large conventional military without putting extra strain on an already weak economy, and climate change will hurt their natural gas supplies where it counts; they'll collapse by the early 2020s.
Japan and Turkey: After Russia falls to pieces, Japan and Turkey will fill the power vacuum in Eurasia, at first pressured to do so by the US to maintain order, and later out of necessity due to a combination of aging populations and a land crunch for Japan. They'll form a natural alliance against the US, as it tries to assert control over increasingly independent powers, and that will eventually lead to War. The US will win, mostly because the Japanese and Turks won't be able to fight the US to defeat, they'll want a political settlement, and the US isn't exactly known for seeing nuance in warfare.
Mexico: Mexico will be a top tier economy by century's end, easily in the running for second place to the US. But Mexico's greatest advantage will be its culture. While the culture of the United States will permeate every society, Mexico will have millions of people of common ancestry living in homogenized groups in the American Southwest. These people will no doubt start distinguishing themselves from the rest of the country, which will be a much more pluralist society, with very different values, religions, and language. This will lead to at least one war, but I see it as more of a Rome vs. Carthage problem with multiple conflicts across decades, rather than one power putting down an upstart.
Since I hail from there, I can tell you that the nation will choose the wrong side in the Little Cold War and then it will split up, both due to internal political divisions, long-cultivated prejudice toward some minorities(Gypsy and Turkish) and the fact that the US will like to split it between the Turks and the Poles. The North, which have better historic ties with Poland will join the Visegrad Group, while the South(populated by Turks and Gypsies self-identifying as Turks) will seek to form it's own nation and along with some major bulgarian business interests will secede and join the Turkish sphere.
P.S. For those wondering, Bulgaria is at the Northern European border of Turkey.
Nice work as always, and nice work on this beautiful looking map.
Was Quebec a peaceful separation via vote, uprising or US mediated ?
So I guess, that the EU as we know it collapsed. How are the relationships between the various power-blocs in Europe, like the Eurozone and the Visegrad-group?
And if France would be part of the Eurozone, why is French Guyana not part of it?
How did Italy split up?
What happened to the various nuclear bombs spread over former Russia? Are now all those new nations that formed out of old Russia armed with nukes?
How was Korea united?
2.) Arabia is a remnant of former oil powers thay have since collapsed.
3.) The balkans are moving support to the Turks.
4.) Norway is just neutral.