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2035: The Rising Tide by YNot1989 2035: The Rising Tide by YNot1989
The collapse of Russia, the Labor Shortage, Climate Change. These are the great events that shaped the Blakanization in the first half of the 21st Century. With the end of the Little Cold War in 2023, the Eurasian Union, and ultimately Russia (the Union State) ceased to exist, fragmenting across ancient cultures long since forgotten by the world until that point. The Tartars, the Don Cossacks, and the Yakuts all found themselves independent for the first time in centuries, while the Finns retook their long lost Karelian territories, while the Visegrad Gruop poached numerous territories from Western Russia. Any semblance of order has taken a decade to emerge, made no easier by an endless effort to secure former Russian nuclear arms from upstart powers like the Samara Republic.

While Russia fragmented, China's economic troubles over the last ten years finally came to fruition in the Market Crash of 2027. While China had officially been in a state of recession for more than nine years, the Crash of 2027 made deep demographic problems in the Chinese, and ultimately the world economy apparent. With the loss of the south Greenland Ice Sheet in 2025, and the subsequent rise in global sea levels by 7 meters, China found themselves facing open revolt in much of the country, a revolt that cost them the territories on their western peripheries and made their northern border porous to foreign influence. To prevent the collapse of the world's third largest economy, the US, intervened directly, pumping over a trillion dollars into the Chinese economy and deploying US Naval detachments to provide relief to refugee flooded cities like Hangzhou. China's collapse also spelled the end for a number of Cold War era institutions like the World Bank, which was never able to secure any significant capital from cash strapped European powers, who were dealing with their own refugee crisis in the low countries. This is often seen as the direct precursor for the eventual dissolution of the United Nations, as American interests in China conflicted with those of Japan, a country desperate for labor to supplement its demographic crisis of an aging population and a xenophobic culture.

As the developing world's coastal cities drowned, across the globe, only the wealthiest cities managed to save themselves from falling beneath the waves by hastily constructed sea walls. Tokyo, Washington DC, New York, and London all found themselves fighting to survive against the seven meter rise in global sea levels. CO2 production had finally stymied by the 2030s with the Electric Vehicle revolution, but the demand for energy put ever greater strain on the global economy, even with Helium-3 shipments from Luna and new improvements in Solar energy. All of this was ultimately secondary in the global zeitgeist when compared to the Population Crisis that drove the Recession of 2027. The sitting administration made several attempts to save the global economy with economic theories left over from the Reagan and Obama administrations, but to no success. This led to the election of Dylan James Price to the Presidency. President Price pushed for an aggressive immigration incentive program to attract skilled immigrants to the US to close the labor gap met by an aging population and increased global demand for high tech goods and services. This is where a silver lining to the rising tide became apparent; as more urban centers found themselves underwater, the displaced populations could fill the labor shortage in the developed world, taking advantage of the new immigration incentives, none more aggressive than those of the United States and Canada (though with the first people's more aggressive calls for independence, Canada was still far behind the US in incentives). Millions of Burmese, Thai, Vietnamese, Nigerian, Chinese, Indian, and Bengali immigrants flooded into North America as their home countries drowned, driving the United States population to 400 million citizens.

While the United States took an incentive approach to solving its demographic problem, the Turks and Japanese took a more direct approach. With the fall of Russia, and China in such a weakened state, the Japanese and Turks took more aggressive military action to secure their regional interests, and export industry to surrounding territories to supplement their population problems. Turkey was aided by ancient ethnic ties to neighboring states and a grateful US, who supported their effort to stabilize the Middle East, while Japan exploited the power vacuum in Eastern Pacific Rim to secure national interests. It was in these years that the seeds for a new global conflict were sewn.

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:iconscott11d:
Scott11D Featured By Owner Nov 27, 2015  New Deviant
You should consider remaking these future maps with the map design employed by Totentanz0 and Donaldtrump97 here on Deviantart to make their alternate Axis victory maps. Such a design would allow the worlds of the future that you envision to have enhanced viewability for your audience.
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:iconscott11d:
Scott11D Featured By Owner Nov 25, 2015  New Deviant
Could you enlarge these world maps of The Rising Tide? It would be good to be able to view the names of the new states that you have emerging in the future.
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:icona-cynical-idealist:
A-Cynical-Idealist Featured By Owner Oct 31, 2015
What effects did this early part of the flood have on the Panama and Suez Canals?  Did it make them more navigable, or did the drowned coastal infrastructure limit shipping abilities?

How long did it take for the anti-US regimes in Cuba and Venezuela to fall, and how did it occur?  Did the US intervene to support their interests, or was there a civil uprising?

How long did the EU take to breakup and how did it occur?  On that topic, the description says the UN collapsed around the 20s-30s, but how exactly did it happen?  Did most countries just stop showing up to meetings, or was there a more official dissolution?

A question specifically about Russia:  how is Nenetsia able to form a coherent state for as long as they did (2023 - ~2070)?  Today, that region has fewer than a million people and their economy is sustained through their wealth of natural gas reserves, but by the 20s and 30s, electric vehicles are commonplace, and both demand and prices are down for all fossil fuels.  Even with the warming climate making it more habitable, this seems to be a recipe for collapse.  Your thoughts?

Did India annex Sri Lanka in this TL?  If so, when and why?

Obviously, the Islamic State isn't going to last long, but in this TL, how and when do the Turks and Iranians step-in and what solution is imposed on the Iraq-Syria question to maintain stability?  I remember on one of the 3rd Mex-Am War maps, you said Baghdad became an independent city-state which caused Turko-Iranian tensions.  Did this happen during the 2010s or much later?

How was Arabia able to unify before Turkish dominance in the Middle East?  The electric vehicle revolution would almost surely doom the Saudi economy, Jordan is at a potentially disastrous crossroads between Arab nationalism and western liberalism, and Yemen is already in chaos from Sunni-Shia tension.  Furthermore, the Arabians don't evidently have the support of any great powers, so the situation appears similar other attempts at pan-Arabism in the 20th century (i.e. short-lived and doomed to failure).

And finally, how did Afghanistan and Pakistan balkanize?  And did it occur because of the Little Cold War (Russia has always had an interest in weakening these two states on their southern flank), or did it happen because of unrelated reasons?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 31, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The flood made the canals more navigable, but the drowned infrastructure made it impossible to impose tolls for some time.

Venezuela's fell shortly after the Little Cold War after years of post-Chavez uncertainty, propped up only by Russian support. Cuba fell to pieces after one of the most devastating hurricanes in living memory basically leveled the island. The US had to send in the US Navy and eventually the Army to handle humanitarian efforts and restore order, and while they were their a few older and more bitter members of the CIA propped up a capitalist-pro-American regime (though it didn't take much effort, Cuba had been falling back into the American sphere with all due haste once the embargo was lifted anyway) When they finally joined the Union in 2033, no one was that surprised given their dependence on the mainland.

The European Union broke up slowly over time, but the real breakup came after Greece left and took most of Southern Europe with them. That was the result of years of dithering and contempt from the ECB and Deuchabank to take the depression in the south seriously. Eastern Europe slowly broke away during the Little Cold War and formally broke away just after the war when European business regulations became too difficult to live with in the post-war economic boom.

Nenetsia took advantage of arctic trade, but in reality they were just the result of loose tribal affiliations and were a coherent state in name only. No one living there really noticed by the time Russia formally reabsorbed them. And if Iceland has taught me anything its that you don't need a lot of people to be a coherent nation-state.

Indian annexed Sri Lanka after a brief war over the sea of refugees that fled the country for India when they lost their coastal ports.

I give the Turks and Iranians until the end of next year to get serious about the Islamic state. Iran is already being more proactive, but the US needs to formalize the entente with them to start sharing intel in any serious way. Keep an eye out for Azerbaijan in the coming year and Russia's actions in Syria and the Caucasus. If Turkey feels like they're being squeezed from both sides, they'll get serious in a hurry. My bet is (and I'm gonna update the map to reflect this) Is that Iraq and Syria will be partitioned into several small ethnic enclaves to maintain a balance of power. I said the Baghdad thing recently as part of my revisions to the timeline to account for ISIS, and it happened post-ISIS.

Arabia isn't unified, its just an umbrella term for a region no one wants for most of the next century. Like Somalia or the Congo. Its a big old mess, but no one cares.

Afghanistan's civil war got worse when the US pulled out, Iran moved in to secure the Persian majority regions near their own border, this drove members of the Taliban crazy which pulled in radial members of the Pakistani military, the civil war spilled over into Pakistan, one coup, civil war, and international intervention later and you get the mess of countries you see before you.
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:iconneptunegate:
NeptuneGate Featured By Owner Oct 10, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
I find it more likely that the US would fragment, rather than Russia. But this is fiction so, I guess I'll suspend my disbelief. As fiction, it sounds real nice on the whole.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Oct 10, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
The US is one of the few developed countries not currently ripping itself apart with economic crisis, government purges (they call em' "anti-corruption crackdowns" in China), massive social unrest (though CNN would have you believe otherwise), or active separatist movements. What exactly makes you think the US is the one at risk here?
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:iconneptunegate:
NeptuneGate Featured By Owner Oct 15, 2015  Hobbyist General Artist
The fact that everything you said is not true (cept the economy part). Not sure what paints you such a pink picture, but that's fine, I don't wanna get into it. We can agree to disagree.
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:iconshadowffd:
ShadowFFD Featured By Owner Aug 25, 2015  Student Traditional Artist
How did America solve its race problem in this? Like with things like Ferguson and Balitmore, they had to improve their guns somehow right?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 25, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Actually, gun control became virtually unenforcable for small arms as 3D printing became commonplace. A lot of factors went into America's healing of old racial wounds. Drugs were steadily decriminalized, Criminal Justice reform reduced prison sentences and most police forces were required to carry out better training of officers. But what drove America to finally get over its racial baggage (specifically with African-Americans, or more accurately, African-Americans descended from slaves) was the Flood and the Immigration reforms of the 2030s. Millions of people from the Eastern coastal states were pushed inland as more land was lost to the tides, this forced a gradual breakdown of cultural homogeneity that defined racial lines in America. Additionally, the influx of millions of new citizens from India, Nigeria, Bengladesh, China, etc. further broke down the old racial barriers. Mixed race couples became the norm by WWIII, and by 2132 its hard to pin down where someone's ancestry comes from unless they specifically ask for a body with a specific look.
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:iconshadowffd:
ShadowFFD Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2015  Student Traditional Artist
What were some of those reforms? Unless you just meant in a broader spectrum :P
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
End of mandatory minimums, better treatment and rehabilitation programs for non-violent criminals, that kinda thing.
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:iconshadowffd:
ShadowFFD Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2015  Student Traditional Artist
I see. How did the U.S. put these people to work and house them? Wad that part of the incentive program?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Aug 26, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well there was a phased system of releasing people incarcerated on absurdly long terms for non-violent crimes, and most parole systems switched to RFID tagged tracking systems. Public housing programs got a huge boost in the 30s with the immigration boom and finding jobs in that era wasn't difficult. If you could work, you could find a job easily.
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:icontsumerai-kyon:
Tsumerai-Kyon Featured By Owner Aug 21, 2015
Quick note you might like to hear, while we're quite friendly with the whole south america, Brazil could conquer Paraguay without many worries (though to what end is the best question). Their whole energy source is located in our frontier and shared with us. If war ever sparked, that would probably be the first thing to go down.

Good story btw.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2015
I'm generally optimistic about the future and even this scenario isn't to bad int he long run since the world recovers (the climate change part) but this kind of scared me, is it simply alarmist hysteria or whatever other term is more appropriate ? www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM0uZ9…
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
It won't be Armageddon, but the urgency is accurate. Humans are tough creatures, and while New Yorkers may be convinced that the world revolves around the Atlantic Seaboard, loosing a bit of the East Coast won't really matter for the US in terms of its position in the world. So long as we have the Farm Belt, and the Mississippi the core of the United States will endure. The Rich will survive, and the poor will suffer. That much is certain.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2015
How long will geo-engineering take to fix things if opposition to it is bypassed as it rightfully should be ?, I've heard talk of Iron Seeding in the ocean to boost plankton and nitrogen dimming of the atmosphere or something like that but not much else.

Unless big atmospheric filters that can remove co-2 are practical at all, kind of like the atmosphere processors int he Aliens universe
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Well the iron seeding project is already happening. Additionally the effort to rewild the subarctic with cloned mammoths will generate new grasslands which will in turn reduce CO2 emmissions. It will be a long and drawn out effort, taking much of the century.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Apr 26, 2015
Won't genetic diversity be an issue with a cloned Mammoth population at first and indeed any other species potentially cloned like Wooly Rhinos and predators to hunt them such as Sabertoothed cats ?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 27, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Of course. I imagine once we figure out how to clone the mammoth, the floodgates will open for other species.
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:iconheliosmegistos:
HeliosMegistos Featured By Owner Apr 27, 2015
With luck Jurassic Park could become a reality although I somehow doubt it
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 27, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
More like Pleistocene Park.
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(1 Reply)
:iconamonre-89:
Amonre-89 Featured By Owner Edited Apr 17, 2015
I like the idea, showed pretty well. I have some doubts with Polish gains in Ukraine, but that's not much.

Nevertheless! I have a question regarding the flood, as I suppose no one has even noticed it. Where did the huge amount of water in Caspian Sea (Lake) come from, as it was able to cover depression and surrounding flatlands?

Considering scientific theories about basin's creation, this region was separated from the ocean due to tectonics, closing the connection with Black Sea, and since then it was sourced with water mostly by rivers (and poor rains). Local rivers don't fully compensate water shortage, also bringing extra mud and sand. This is most probably how the Caspian depression formed in the first place.

Summing up, I think the Caspian, Aral and other "big" waters in region should rather tend to evaporate, unless they find a rich source of water to reverse the trend... But where did you get such water reservoir?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 17, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
That's just what I've seen on all other maps depicting rising sea levels, but I think its the result of flood water from the Black Sea draining into the Volga and Don rivers.
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:icontakagawa-shuoist:
Takagawa-Shuoist Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2015
Excuse me, I am an amateurish player and find so many exellent map like this on your website, could you tell me which software you used to realize them? Thank you very much~
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 14, 2015  Hobbyist Digital Artist
GIMP
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:icontakagawa-shuoist:
Takagawa-Shuoist Featured By Owner Feb 15, 2015
soga!
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:iconnealman11:
NealMan11 Featured By Owner Sep 7, 2014
I feel like Austria, Switzerland, and other middle European countries as well as Norway or Sweden would be in the Eurozone and that Finland wouldn't be part of the Visengrad group but you probably contemplated this for hours while I wrote this in 5 minutes so you're probably right
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:iconlonn7:
lonn7 Featured By Owner Jun 10, 2014
So, what exactly happens in Bosnia?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Jun 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Poland and Turkey are all mucking around in there to gain access to the Adriatic. So they supported what groups they had to and a couple of brushfire wars later and you're left with no Bosnia.
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:iconrogueleader1000:
RogueLeader1000 Featured By Owner May 1, 2014
looks like the British are in terrible shape in this scenario. They've lost all their overseas territories. And America annexed French Polynesia, Cuba, and Hispaniola...interesting.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 28, 2014
What in your opinion is the greatest threat to American hegemony at present in the world?  
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 28, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Short term: Russia
Long term: Mexico
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014
So do you feel that Americas shift to the Pacific is unnecessary?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No, not at all. In the Pacific we have many regional powers that will no doubt try to start trouble, and there will be other short term players trying to challenge the US there, but I was simply trying to narrow the list down a bit. Let me expand my beliefs on challengers to American power.

China: China's days as a challenger are numbered, 20 years of unchecked growth was never sustainable, and the government is fortunately smart enough to know when to put on the brakes. They're gonna spend the next decade in a controlled decline, trying to keep the nation together by creating a more stable system that won't result in the same cycles of collapse that China has known for the last five thousand years. They'll never surpass the US because of this, but they'll be able to keep China together... for a time anyway.

Russia: Russia is the immediate threat. They have the territory, the resources, the military, and the will to challenge the US in Europe and West Asia, but they can't realistically do much beyond their immediate periphery. They will try and craft an alliance structure to create distractions for the US, and by the tail end of the decade their military will be on par with that of the US... though their Navy won't be anywhere close to the size of that of the US. But, as a long term threat, Russia can't support a large conventional military without putting extra strain on an already weak economy, and climate change will hurt their natural gas supplies where it counts; they'll collapse by the early 2020s.

Japan and Turkey: After Russia falls to pieces, Japan and Turkey will fill the power vacuum in Eurasia, at first pressured to do so by the US to maintain order, and later out of necessity due to a combination of aging populations and a land crunch for Japan. They'll form a natural alliance against the US, as it tries to assert control over increasingly independent powers, and that will eventually lead to War. The US will win, mostly because the Japanese and Turks won't be able to fight the US to defeat, they'll want a political settlement, and the US isn't exactly known for seeing nuance in warfare.

Mexico: Mexico will be a top tier economy by century's end, easily in the running for second place to the US. But Mexico's greatest advantage will be its culture. While the culture of the United States will permeate every society, Mexico will have millions of people of common ancestry living in homogenized groups in the American Southwest. These people will no doubt start distinguishing themselves from the rest of the country, which will be a much more pluralist society, with very different values, religions, and language. This will lead to at least one war, but I see it as more of a Rome vs. Carthage problem with multiple conflicts across decades, rather than one power putting down an upstart. 
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Apr 29, 2014
Thank you for the long response! This is exactly the answer I was looking for, especially with regards to the big picture.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Mar 8, 2014
Why did Italy split?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 8, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
As climate change got worse what was left of the EU started allocating money to try and save Atlantic Europe from flooding, and Southern Italy, already fed up with the rest of Europe's economic woes, broke away.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Mar 9, 2014
Makes sense. Also, i noticed that in your older 2nd Renaissance timeline the flood ended up being the thing that unified Europe into a single entity. What changed your mind?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Mar 10, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'm now of the opinion that humans would rather selfishly covet their own lives and treasure rather than risk them to help other humans when there is no apparent benefit to them.
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:iconjrlc66:
jrlc66 Featured By Owner Feb 14, 2014
you need to look at the volume of the ocean have dropping the floor ocean 1000 5000 feet 12 years earthquakes volcano it start year 1983 the hawaii 
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:icondaniocean:
DaniOcean Featured By Owner Feb 12, 2014
I can see that you always put Bulgaria as either unaffiliated or in the wrong alliance(sphere). I wonder, is this due to your lack of knowledge on the region, or is it due to you actually think it will take such positions?

Since I hail from there, I can tell you that the nation will choose the wrong side in the Little Cold War and then it will split up, both due to internal political divisions, long-cultivated prejudice toward some minorities(Gypsy and Turkish) and the fact that the US will like to split it between the Turks and the Poles. The North, which have better historic ties with Poland will join the Visegrad Group, while the South(populated by Turks and Gypsies self-identifying as Turks) will seek to form it's own nation and along with some major bulgarian business interests will secede and join the Turkish sphere.

P.S. For those wondering, Bulgaria is at the Northern European border of Turkey.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 12, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Interesting insight, but I usually just ignore Bulgaria because its in the Balkans, and I could claim just about anything happens down there and it wouldn't matter.
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:icondaniocean:
DaniOcean Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014
Yup, this is generally true, but I think in this case it is relevant, due to Turkey and their confrontation with the Visegrad Group(btw, I love this name), during WWIII. Well if nothing else it will contribute to the realistic quality of the map.
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Feb 13, 2014  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Not my name. Its real.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013
So this isn't a timeline specific question, but what are your views on Friedman's perception of China not being a major player? While he's gotten a lot right, other things and problems slated to happen for the country just...haven't happened. How would a timeline for the next 10 years of China look like for you?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Dec 16, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I think Friedman's projection of China "Receding," in some form is right on the money, and I think that if climate change doesn't hit them too hard they might be able to pull a Japan and stabilize.
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:iconmicrowavedreams:
microwavedreams Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013
What did you use to determine the nations that would emerge from a balkanized Russia?
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:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 30, 2013  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I looked up Russia's semi-autonomous and autonomous republics, oblasts, etc. referenced those against actual geography, and then added in regions of economic interest that would form out of necessity rather than ethnolinquistic convenience.
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:icongatemonger:
gatemonger Featured By Owner Oct 20, 2013
What do you use as sources for the projections for African boundaries in your maps, as Friedman's two most recent books gloss over the continent almost entirely?
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