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2016 Election Scenarios by YNot1989 2016 Election Scenarios by YNot1989
A series of 2016 election scenarios based on 538 demographic and polling estimates. Going from Top to bottom left to right.

EDIT: Well, after the first debate, it seems Clinton's baiting campaign is off to a good start.
FINAL EDIT: Well, today we find out which timeline we call home.

---Clinton wins by 16---
Trump's debate performances are an embarrassment as Clinton baits Trump into saying things that make him look like an unhinged nut. The VP debates somehow make this worse as Tim Kaine presses Mike Pence to recant his running mate's more bigoted views, leading to an ugly inter-campaign fight between Trump and Pence. The October surprise is a crushing defeat of ISIS at Mosul, spun masterfully by the Obama and Clinton camps as a validation of the Obama doctrine. Trump's campaign of fear now looks completely out of touch with reality, and many Republicans desert him for the Libertarian ticket or Clinton. The Democrats gain a 10 vote majority in the Senate and take back the House majority.

-Results-
Clinton: 468
Trump: 70

---Clinton wins by 12 points---
The debates go very badly for Trump as Clinton begins to master the art of baiting the candidate into a tirade of incoherent and racists rants. The October surprise is Trump coming under investigation for campaign finance violations for embezzling campaign funds into his failing businesses. His response is such an embarrassment to the party that most Republicans withdraw their endorsement of the candidate. The Democrats gain a 7 vote majority in the Senate and are only 6 votes from a House majority.

-Results-
Clinton: 395
Trump: 137
McMullin: 6

---Clinton wins by 8 points---
Clinton's lead levels out after Labor Day, but the first debate goes very badly for Trump; he manages to recover somewhat by the second debate, and the VP debate is boring as ever. The October surprise is a repeat of Romney's "47% Video," with a leak of Trump in a candid setting talking about his treatment of women. His response to the tape during the final debate only widens the gap and the Democrats gain a 5 vote majority in the Senate and are only 10 votes from a House majority.

-Results-
Clinton: 375
Trump: 157
McMullin: 6

---Repeat of 2012---
Clinton's lead begins to erode, but Trump is never able to recover from his slide after the Democratic Convention. The October surprise is something minor that drives more voters to the Green and Libertarian parties, but doesn't significantly impact the elections. The Democrats gain a 1 vote majority in the Senate.

-Results-
Clinton: 332
Trump: 206


---Current Polls Plus (FiveThirtyEight)---
I'll be updating this ever few weeks as a control group poll.

-Results-
Clinton: 319
Trump: 219

---Tied Vote---
Clinton's  attempt to run out the clock backfires and the race begins to narrow. Trump's manages to upset low expectations, while Clinton under-performs and fails to energize her party's base. The October surprise is a further email leak made more damaging than past leaks due to voters and the media becoming numb to Trump's outbursts. Clinton and Trump's responses only drive down voter turnout and increases the nation's disgust with both candidates, ultimately leading to a tie vote in the Electoral College, with Clinton winning a very slight plurality of the popular vote. Per the 12th Amendment, the Republican controlled House of Representatives votes to determine the winner. 

-Results-
Clinton:269
Trump: 269

---Trump by a Hair---
Clinton's  health and email scandals remain a persistent issue while Trump seems to have found the right balance of rhetoric to appeal to enough voters to clear a path to the White House. Trump's performance in the debates starts out badly but eventually recovers somewhat. The Republicans hold the Senate and the House.

-Results-
Clinton:268
Trump: 270

---Emailgate---
Clinton's string of email leaks continues to irritate voters, and she continues to slip in the polls. Many younger voters stay home on election day, and Independents who who otherwise would have voted for Clinton now have a reason to justify not voting for her, leading to a Trump victory. The Republicans lose the Senate by one seat, but hold the House.

-Results-
Clinton: 249
Trump: 289

---Shy White Nationalists---
Clinton's  attempt to run out the clock backfires and the race begins to narrow. Trump's fire and brimstone rhetoric begins to energize his base of voters and plays to many voters looking for a reason not to vote for Clinton. Exit polling will reveal that non-college educated whites were under-sampled for most of the campaign. The Republicans hold the Senate and the House.

-Results-
Clinton: 190
Trump: 348
Add a Comment:
 
:iconeirivero:
EIRivero Featured By Owner Dec 24, 2016
your shy white nationalist was very close to the actual result.
Reply
:iconeirivero:
EIRivero Featured By Owner Dec 24, 2016
you got very good political senses
Reply
:iconcutestsith:
CutestSith Featured By Owner Dec 13, 2016  Hobbyist General Artist
It was the bottom right. 
Reply
:iconwarriorofvengeance2:
Warriorofvengeance2 Featured By Owner Nov 15, 2016  Hobbyist Photographer
Well true final results 

Trump: 306
Clinton: 232
Reply
:iconsulpsulk:
sulPSulk Featured By Owner Nov 9, 2016
Seems like a combo of Emailgate and Shy White Nationalists happened.

The former seems particularly pertinent given what had happened just days before the election.
Reply
:iconvlitramonster:
vlitramonster Featured By Owner Nov 9, 2016  Student General Artist
Welp, that's that, I guess.
Reply
:iconpheasant-one:
Pheasant-One Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016  Student Writer
Its Bernie or Bust!
Reply
:iconcutestsith:
CutestSith Featured By Owner Dec 13, 2016  Hobbyist General Artist
Shy white nats seems to be closer. 
Reply
:iconschizocatgirl264:
schizocatgirl264 Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016  Hobbyist Artisan Crafter
Trumps winning right now
Reply
:iconal3ssio97:
Al3ssio97 Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016
We will se who will win tomorrow in Europe 
Reply
:iconvlitramonster:
vlitramonster Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016  Student General Artist
you think the latest wikileaks will affect what's going to happen?
Reply
:iconnieogarex:
nieOgaRex Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016
>Clinton
>Wins
Yeah, no.
Reply
:icona-cynical-idealist:
A-Cynical-Idealist Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016
What data have you been using for the more extreme scenarios? In "Clinton Wins by 12" I would have though Texas would be sooner to flip to blue than South Carolina
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
its 538s own landslide scenario.
Reply
:iconmatritum:
matritum Featured By Owner Nov 5, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
It would be hilarious if Trump wins by a hair... ^^
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yeah... until he starts using executive powers to carry out vendettas against people.
Reply
:iconwaterpoke:
waterpoke Featured By Owner Nov 3, 2016
Let's pray for America to make the right decision. Though it doesn't look like that's gonna happen at this point...
Reply
:icontroll36:
troll36 Featured By Owner Nov 1, 2016  Hobbyist Interface Designer
I'd have to say "Bernie or bust" with "shy nationalists" with trump barely getting Oregon &/or New Mexico by a hair
Reply
:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Nov 1, 2016
So what would you bet on now?
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 2, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I still bet on Clinton, but short of yet another "surprise" (please be Trump's taxes, please be Trump's taxes) its gonna be the tightest race since 2000.
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Nov 4, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
So do you think what fivethirtyeight will be saying on Monday will be how the election turns out?
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Nov 6, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Its either gonna be "We told ya so." OR "The outcome of the election has forced us to reexamine our predictive model."
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Nov 8, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
He just got Florida and Ohio...
Reply
:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Nov 4, 2016
I think the suprise is the allegations revolving around Christie.
Reply
:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Nov 2, 2016
FiveThirtyEight gives her a 70% chance of winning. . . give or take.
Reply
:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2016
The current polls-plus is now Clinton:322, Trump: 216.
Reply
:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Oct 28, 2016
I think you should do another update at the end of the month, and a final one the day before the election 
Reply
:iconvoughtvindicator:
VoughtVindicator Featured By Owner Oct 10, 2016  Hobbyist Traditional Artist
In the cartoon timeline, a massive health crisis by Hillary and an all out GOP civil war after the Ryan unendorsement gets Trump in the white house but with an obstructionist Democratic senate.
Reply
:iconfreedim:
Freedim Featured By Owner Oct 7, 2016
Say goodbye to Ohio you wall-building maniac!
Reply
:icontallestskil:
TallestSkil Featured By Owner Nov 12, 2016
Wakey wakey.
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Oct 4, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
You should update this, according to fivethirtyeight she's pretty much has her old lead back.
Reply
:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Oct 4, 2016
Do you think she'll be able to keep it into the second debate, now that Kaine has lost to Pence in the VP debate?
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Oct 5, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
VP stuff doesn't make a dent. Besides, Trump has to do damage control about his 1995 tax return anyway.
Reply
:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 5, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
The problem is that according to the tax laws, the Donald's loss enabled him to pay nothing in federal income tax as he could claim it against his loss. What is particularly damning; however, is that the New York Times released this information without Trump's consent. I suspect that this will hurt Hillary more than help her. Then again, this election has defied all logic.
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Oct 5, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
One thing you got to remember is that most media outlets are anti-Trump, so they'd obviously skew any story about him in their favor.
Even if he can overcome that he still has to fix his blow from the first debate, which could be unpredictable to be honest.

Perhaps this'll be surprising, like 2014.
Reply
:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 5, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
He's definitely got some work to do. I think Pence did quite a bit to help him in the sense that it allowed for that "reset" everyone is talking about.
Reply
:iconbluepurplebadger:
BluePurpleBadger Featured By Owner Oct 6, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
Of course the only voters that matter to the candidates are the ones in Florida, Pennsylvania,and Ohio so he'd have to keep his image up there too.
Reply
:iconwilji1090:
wilji1090 Featured By Owner Oct 6, 2016  Hobbyist Artist
The thing that's going to be interesting is if the third parties manage to somehow hang the electoral college. We could potentially wind up with a President Clinton and Vice President Pence or vice versa.
Reply
(1 Reply)
:iconelsqiubbonator:
You need to update the "current polls-plus" so that Maine is divided and Nevada is in red.
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
I'm gonna wait until tomorrow when the slew of post-debate polls flood 538's model.
Reply
:iconelsqiubbonator:
ElSqiubbonator Featured By Owner Sep 28, 2016
I don't know if the post-debate polls have come in yet, but the general consensus seems to be that Clinton won the debate.
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 28, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Yes, and looks like she got a 4 point bump as a result. Don't know if its been added to 538's model yet.
Reply
:iconelsqiubbonator:
Doesn't look like it. She's still within 2 points of Trump. But her odds have gone up to 58%, so there's something.
Reply
:iconinfernomole:
InfernoMole Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016
That said, Clinton is not all too better than Trump. A silly question: if George III was a candidate, would you vote for him?
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Hell no. He was crazier than a shit-house rat and didn't give a fuck about Americans being represented in parliament to at least have a say in how they were going to be taxed/governed.
Reply
:iconinfernomole:
InfernoMole Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016
OK. Will you make a scenario that doesn't involve Russia torture porn?
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
Look, in the Second Renaissance timeline (which is partly derived from the Next 100 Years and STRATFOR/Geopolitical Futures/George Friedman's analysis of geopolitics over the coming decades) Russia collapses, and thus most of the maps you see set in said timeline are going to reflect that because it happens fairly early in the story. Its the main timeline I focus my energy on, and its not intended to be "Russia torture porn."
Reply
:iconinfernomole:
InfernoMole Featured By Owner Sep 26, 2016
Oh. Sorry.
Reply
:iconynot1989:
YNot1989 Featured By Owner Sep 28, 2016  Hobbyist Digital Artist
No worries, I just don't want you to get the idea that I implicitly hate Russia.
Reply
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